Robert Half's stock has soared. Wall Street is betting on its "strong recovery"

Shares of Robert Half, a recruitment firm, soared nearly 22% on October 23—reaching their highest level since May 2025. Although the company’s revenue remained virtually unchanged year-over-year, “Wall Street is thrilled” about the prospects for its subsidiary Protiviti—against the backdrop of a recent wave of government fines imposed on major banks. The consulting firm Protiviti provides banks with services in risk management, compliance, and internal auditing.

Robert Half's stock rose nearly 22% on October 23 on the New York Stock Exchange to $45.87. This is the highest level since May 2025.

The company reported that its third-quarter revenue totaled $1.36 billion—an increase of less than half a percent. But even that is an achievement: data from the U.S. Department of Labor for September indicate that the employment services industry lost about 14,000 jobs, Barron’s notes.

Robert Half's net income for the same period increased 16% year-over-year to $50 million, while diluted earnings per share rose 14% to $0.49. This marked the first time such positive growth had been observed since 2022.

Robert Half's financial results slightly exceeded analysts' expectations, according to Barron's. But they are unlikely to trigger a sharp rise in the stock price, notes Anders Bylund, a contributing analyst at The Motley Fool. Wall Street is betting on a “strong recovery” for the company, which it attributes primarily to its subsidiary Protiviti, he notes.

Over the past 90 days, U.S. Treasury regulators have imposed significant fines on a number of major banks, making it clear that: compliance with anti-money laundering requirements remains a top priority related to national security, said Robert Half CEO Keith Waddell during a conference call with analysts. According to him, these actions require a variety of measures, including retrospective analysis and a significant increase in the volume of transaction and document reviews. Protiviti works with more than 80% of the world’s largest financial institutions, but its market share is significantly smaller than that of the “Big Four,” which presents opportunities for growth, he said.

Increased demand for services to address anti-money laundering compliance violations allows the company to expect Protiviti to return to revenue growth in the fourth quarter, despite a decline of approximately 3% in the third quarter—to $483 million. According to Waddell, such projects can last at least several quarters, and Protiviti has carried out some similar engagements for years in the past. In its base-case scenario, the company expects Protiviti’s revenue to grow 2% year-over-year.

In addition, the trend is also favorable for another Robert Half division—Talent Solutions, which specializes in recruiting temporary and permanent staff—since some of the work is performed by specialists it has hired, Waddell noted. At the end of the third quarter, Talent Solutions’ revenue increased by 2%, marking the first positive growth since 2022.

Overall, for the current fourth quarter, Robert Half forecasts consolidated revenue in the range of $1.29 billion to $1.39 billion and earnings per share of $0.36 to $0.46.

“The recovery is clearly underway,” as Robert Half’s clients remain focused on technology modernization, cybersecurity, and IT infrastructure, according to Mark Marcon, an analyst at investment bank Baird (as quoted by Barron’s).

There is no consensus on Wall Street regarding the company's outlook: five analysts recommend selling Robert Half stock, four recommend buying it, and the same number recommend holding it. The average price target is $39.6, which is below the stock's price following the rally on October 23.