'That Grande TACO': how analysts assessed Trump's sudden truce with Iran

US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran less than two hours before the deadline for his ultimatum for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz under threat of massive strikes on energy infrastructure. Stock analysts were quick to dub Trump's sudden abandonment of his intention to destroy Iran "overnight" the term Grande TACO - a reference to American fast food portion sizes and the political meme Trump Always Chickens Out.

- "This is the Grande TACO that the markets have been hoping for. The opening of the Strait is of huge significance and oil prices are probably past their peak. This crisis will leave a trail of repercussions. But the peak of escalation and volatility is likely behind us," Capital.com senior market analyst Kyle Rodda said (quoted by Reuters).

- "[The ceasefire] gives Trump a chance to backtrack on his overly bombastic ultimatum, but is not yet a way out for oil markets or war. It is unlikely that halted oil and LNG production [in the Middle East] will resume until there is more certainty of a long-term ceasefire. But even if a peace agreement is reached, the market will face shortages of 3 to 5 million bpd over the next few years compared to pre-war expectations due to damage to oil and refined products export infrastructure that will take months or even years to repair," warned MST Marquee's head of energy research, Saul Kavonick.

- "There is still a significant gap between the U.S. and Iranian positions. And Israel's goals lie on a completely different plane. There is still a long way to go before the three sides can come to an agreement in a form that satisfies everyone," said Shingo Ide, chief equity strategist at NLI Research Institute.

- "You can't restart global shipping in 24 hours," noted Jennifer Parker, a professor at the Defense and Security Institute at the University of Western Australia. - Tanker owners, insurers and seafarers need to believe that the risks have actually been reduced, not just postponed for a while" (quoted by Bloomberg).

- "In essence, we are witnessing a classic "relief rally" amid a still unstable macro economy. The stock market is playing off the news of de-escalation, but investors are in no hurry to close hedging positions as the fundamental picture remains uncertain. Positivity coexists with caution: investors tactically increase the share of risky assets, but continue to hold and even increase protective positions as insurance against a trend reversal or new news releases," said Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs (quoted by CNBC).

- "This kind of thing happens all the time. Does this mean that investors are ready to build up risk again? No. For the market situation to really change, a lasting peace is needed. People are not taking risks right now - all the dynamics are provided by trading algorithms," emphasized Westpac's head of financial markets strategy Martin Wetton (quoted by Reuters).

Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) announced the start of direct talks with the United States on April 10 in Islamabad. The Council also emphasized that the current two-week ceasefire could be extended with mutual agreement. Donald Trump called the Iranian side's proposed ten-point peace plan a "working framework for negotiations."

According to Nour News, an Iranian publication close to the USSC, Tehran's list of demands includes: fundamental guarantees of non-aggression by the United States, recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium and retain control over the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the complete lifting of primary and secondary sanctions, along with the lifting of all anti-Iran resolutions of the UN Security Council and the IAEA. In addition, the list includes compensation to Iran for military damage, withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region and a cease-fire on all fronts, including the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, The Wall Street Journal reported.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor