"The Most Absurd IPO of the Year": Why an Analytics Firm Predicted Anthropic's Failure

The initial public offering (IPO) of AI startup Anthropic will be “the most absurd IPO of 2026” and pose a risk of historic proportions to financial markets, according to analysts at the independent research firm New Constructs. Anthropic is aiming for a market capitalization of $2 trillion with its Nasdaq listing, which could take place as early as mid-November. New Constructs values the company at just $150 billion, promising Wall Street “an unprecedented test of investor trust.”

“We don’t believe Anthropic has a viable business,” wrote analysts at New Constructs, after analyzing the AI giant’s mounting operating losses alongside intensifying competition. “With the emergence of open-source models, it has become clear that proprietary models will struggle to turn a profit,” the New Constructs report states.

Anthropic’s estimated valuation at its IPO exceeds $2 trillion, according to Reuters , which reviewed the unpublished prospectus for the listing. According to estimates by analysts at a research firm, to justify such a valuation, the AI startup would need to post annual profits twice that of Nvidia—the world’s most valuable company—CNBC reports. Nvidia’s net profit over the past four quarters exceeded $190 billion. Anthropic remained unprofitable last year: with revenue of about $4.6 billion, its operating loss reached $8.06 billion, according to the document reviewed by Reuters. At the same time, the company is rapidly increasing its sales: according to The New York Times, it expects to reach an annual revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of the year. In August, that figure stood at about $65 billion, Bloomberg reported.

The warning in the IPO prospectus that AI could pose “catastrophic risks to humanity or a threat to its very existence” is yet another reason why investors should steer clear of Anthropic’s IPO, notes New Constructs.

Antrophic may begin its pre-IPO roadshow the week of November 9–15 in order to begin trading before Thanksgiving in the U.S., Bloomberg reported earlier.

Anthropic did not respond to CNBC's request for comment.

The company has committed to paying $518 billion for cloud services, computing power, and infrastructure in the coming years, according to a leaked copy of its IPO prospectus. In 2025, Anthropic’s spending on these items tripled to $7.33 billion, accounting for more than half of its total operating expenses.

Just two customers accounted for nearly a quarter of the company's revenue. At the same time, many of its largest customers are not bound by long-term contracts and could cut back on spending or stop using its services.

Following the IPO, Anthropic’s seven co-founders will retain control over key corporate decisions thanks to a special class of shares that grants them 50.1% of the voting rights. The influence of other shareholders will be limited. In addition, the company will retain its status as a public benefit corporation, allowing management to consider the interests of society alongside those of investors. In its prospectus, the startup warns that decisions made under this model may conflict with shareholders’ financial interests and negatively impact the value of the stock. In particular, Anthropic has already opted out of developing commercially attractive products—including image and video generation models—in order to focus its resources on research and ensuring AI safety.

David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, has earned a reputation on Wall Street as a “bear” when it comes to IPOs. He has been proven right in the past, according to CNBC. Ahead of coworking network WeWork’s initial public offering, the research firm called it “the most absurd IPO of 2019.” Prior to the listing, investors valued WeWork at $47 billion; however, just six weeks after the analysts’ report, the company canceled the IPO due to weak demand and harsh criticism of its financial data. In 2023, WeWork filed for bankruptcy.

“Although Anthropic contributes more to society than WeWork ever did, at a valuation of $2 trillion, its IPO carries significantly greater risks and will be a much bigger scam on the U.S. capital markets,” New Constructs warned.

A research firm also took a pessimistic view of the 2021 IPO of the footwear company Allbirds. The company debuted on the Nasdaq, and on its very first day, its stock price soared by 90%, with its market capitalization exceeding $4 billion. In 2026, Allbirds—which was experiencing financial difficulties— announced a change in direction: it sold its footwear brand and would focus on providing AI computing services from its own data center.

However, Trainer’s firm also made some missteps, CNBC notes. Its pick for the “most absurd” IPO of 2020 was the food delivery service DoorDash, which analysts also compared to WeWork, stating that the company “is in a similarly unfavorable position.” However, DoorDash successfully established itself on the public market. The company’s shares soared on the first day of trading, giving it a market capitalization of more than $60 billion. Since then, that figure has risen to $83 billion.

In a 2021 interview with CNBC, Trainer acknowledged that “crazy things are happening” in the market and that New Constructs isn’t always right. “I can’t let that throw me off,” he said at the time. “I have to stay true to what I believe is right.”

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor