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'This is not a way to get rich quick': what are analysts saying about SpaceX's stock market debut?

The trades started with the price 11% above the offering level, then the securities added another 25%

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

SPCX
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Vladislav Osipov

Vladislav Osipov

Some analysts cant justify SpaceXs value above $1.3 trillion, while others think its stock is a good long-term investment / Photo: X / SpaceX

Some analysts can't justify SpaceX's value above $1.3 trillion, while others think its stock is a good long-term investment / Photo: X / SpaceX

Shares of Elon Musk's space company SpaceX jumped by more than a quarter during the first trading on Nasdaq after the IPO. The capitalization of SpaceX exceeded $2 trillion, which immediately made it the sixth in the list of the most expensive companies in the United States, writes Reuters. This IPO was the largest in history and made the head of the company Elon Musk the first trillionaire in history. But analysts' opinions on this record debut differ: some believe that it is difficult to justify the company's valuation above $1.3 trillion, while others compare SpaceX to Tesla or Nvidia.

What the analysts are saying

- SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO valuation is justified today, but the company is poised for growth in the coming years, Altimeter Capital CEO and investor Brad Gerstner told CNBC. SpaceX stock can be a good investment if held for a few years, he said. "It's not a way to get rich quick. But if you're willing to hold the stock for a year or two, I think the results will be very good. This paper can show a decent yield," Gerstner said.

SpaceX stock rises 23% in debut trading, Musk is officially a trillionaire: online

SpaceX stock rises 23% in debut trading, Musk is officially a trillionaire: online

- "We are excited that SpaceX is embarking on a new chapter in its journey as a public company and look forward to supporting its mission to push the frontiers of manned space exploration," Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon wrote on social media X.

- Aswath Damodaran, a popular Wall Street expert on company valuations and professor of finance at New York University, questioned SpaceX's $1.8 trillion market valuation after its IPO. "SpaceX is an amazing company. It's an engineering marvel," Damodaran said on CNBC on Friday. But even if you lay out the most ambitious growth scenarios, there are a lot of assumptions that need to be made to arrive at a $1.8 trillion valuation, he warned. The analyst noted that when he saw the potential $28.5 trillion AI market in SpaceX's prospectus, he thought Grok, Elon Musk's AI-owned assistant, was writing the document, not a banker. "It's a hallucination," Damodaran said. - I would be embarrassed to even put a figure like that."

SpaceX valuation is built on over-confident expectations of artificial intelligence, says valuation guru / Photo: X/SpaceX

SpaceX IPO stymied by AI: why did "valuation guru" find the company overvalued?

- "I personally think SpaceX is now more like the Nvidia of three years ago than the Tesla that I think a lot of investors are comparing it to," CNBC quoted Sequoia Capital partner Sean Maguire as saying. - And I mean, I personally have very high confidence in explosive revenue growth." He added that as a private investor, he would "hold his shares forever." Sequoia Capital invested in SpaceX in late 2019 and owns about 1.5% of the company. The value of that stake exceeds $20 billion, Bloomberg notes.

- AI startup xAI is the "spectacular" part of the SpaceX story, while satellite internet startup Starlink is its "stable" backbone: the business accounts for 61% of the company's 2025 sales, notes Bloomberg Intelligence telecom analyst John Butler. "Revenue in this segment is poised to grow more than 27% this year," the analyst wrote, "as government revenues and demand for satellite broadband services support growth.

Photo: SpaceX / unsplash

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- Wolfe Research analysts consider Starship to be the key to SpaceX's investment story, MarketWatch writes. If the company manages to make this super-heavy rocket reusable, it will be able to drastically reduce the cost of launches and gain an advantage that will be difficult for competitors to replicate, analysts say. Many of SpaceX's future projects - from launching AI satellites to its lunar program and Mars missions - depend on it. Wolfe Research began coverage of SpaceX stock with an Outperform recommendation and a target price of $175, which is 30% above the IPO price.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor

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