Three investment banks named Eli Lilly as the leader in the weight loss drug race

JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and RBC Capital believe that pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly will be the main beneficiary of the rapidly growing market of GLP-1 weight loss drugs. Analysts point to the higher efficacy of its therapy compared to competitors, development of direct sales and potential expansion of insurance coverage.

Three major investment banks almost simultaneously confirmed an optimistic view of Eli Lilly, expecting that it is the US pharma giant that could dominate the obesity therapy market.

JPMorgan Chase analyst Chris Schott called the stock one of the bank's key investment ideas. Eli Lilly has "best-in-class" status, CNBC quoted him as saying. In the fourth quarter of 2025, about 1.5 million patients purchased drugs through the company's direct sales on its LillyDirect platform, and that number is expected to grow, the analyst estimates. By 2030, about 8 million patients will be using GLP-1 weight loss products, paying for them themselves, Schott expects.

In addition, he believes Eli Lilly will be a major beneficiary of possible inclusion in the U.S. federal Medicare insurance program beginning in April: the number of patients under the program could reach 4.5 million by 2030.

The recommendation to buy Eli Lilly securities with the target price of $1285 was confirmed by Deutsche Bank, CNBC reports. This target implies the potential growth of shares by 25% from the level of closing of trades on February 25.

"The [diabetes and obesity] [treatment] market is likely to consolidate around Eli Lilly's portfolio," Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin wrote after data on Novo Nordisk's CagriSema drug showed the Danish rival lagging behind and caused its stock price to collapse.

RBC Capital analyst Trung Huynh called Eli Lilly "a top pick among securities with strong growth momentum." He expects its dominance in the obesity drugs segment through 2030, patent protection through 2035 and manufacturing advantages. The bank initiated coverage on the company's stock with an Outperform rating, which is consistent with a buy recommendation, and set a target price of $1250, Investing writes. It is 21.5% higher than the current quotes.

According to RBC, the market is still underestimating the potential of Eli Lilly's weight-loss pill. At its peak, it could bring the company more than $35 billion in sales, the analyst believes. The manufacturer expects that the drug in oral form will be approved in the U.S. by March 2026, while Novo has already released a tablet version.

Shares of Eli Lilly fell by 1.3% at the end of trading on February 25. Since the beginning of the year quotations fell by 4.2%.

The optimistic outlook for Eli Lilly came shortly after Novo Nordisk published weak study results. The Danish pharma company reported on February 23 that its combination drug CagriSema provided about 23% weight loss over 84 weeks.

By comparison, a 2023 detailed trial of tirzepatide (the active ingredient in Lilly's Zepbound injections) showed that patients continued to lose weight after a 36-week introductory period of therapy, with an additional 6.7% reduction over the following 52 weeks and a cumulative reduction reaching about 26% over 88 weeks, the company noted.

Buy Eli Lilly shares are advised by 27 Wall Street analysts out of 34 who cover the securities, Marketwatch shows. A month ago, the company had 24 out of 32 such recommendations.

Six analysts have taken a neutral stance, with one suggesting selling shares of the US pharma giant.

The average target is $1247, which corresponds to the expectation of 21% growth of quotations relative to the price at the close of trading on February 25.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor