The average target price of CRWD is 500 and suggests 6% upside potential. Usually, this means a HOLD recommendation among investment firms. This neutral recommendation suggests no significant price movement, up or down, in the next 12 months. The most optimistic analyst has a target price of 610.0. This translates into 29% upside potential in the best case. On the other hand, the most pessimistic analyst has a target price of 330.0. This is equivalent to 30% downside potential in the worst case. 

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-delivered protection across endpoints and cloud workloads, identity, and data. It offers threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, threat hunting, Zero Trust identity protection, and log management. The company primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules through its direct sales team that leverages its network of channel partners. It serves customers worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Austin, Texas.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

Technology

The company does not pay dividends at all, or it pays them sporadically. There have only been a few years with dividend payments in the past ten years. 

CRWD reported revenue of USD 4 136mn in the last 12 months, up 5% from FY24. At the same time, the dynamics of cash flow, as measured by free cash flow (FCF), were drastically different. EPS grew 905% from FY24 to USD -0.69. Market expects EPS to reach USD 3.76 in FY25.

Over the last six months, the stock performance has varied, with an increase following a drop. The stock's price trend wasn't definitive when matched against its global counterparts from the same sector and industry (as depicted above). Over the past six months the stock has exceeded the performance of this peer group by 23ppts and its growth decelerated by 8ppts in the past month. This is equally valid for peers from the same country and industry. Given the stock's valuation versus its peers, its total price movement is neither favourable nor unfavourable.

The company has reported weak EBITDA margins compared to its global peers in recent years. EBITDA margin amounted to 4.0% in the last 12 months, a decline from 6.1% in FY24. 

Historically, CRWD has reported very poor net margins compared to its global peers. Specifically, in the last 12 months, this metric equalled -4.2%, down from -0.5% in FY24. 

Another important profitability metric, return on assets (RoA), amounted to -2.0% in the last 12 months, a decrease from -0.3% in FY24. The market analysts predict that RoA will be -0.3% in FY25, again weaker than its peers. 

In the last 12 months, the return on capital employed (RoCE) declined to -3.2%, below the peers. The consensus estimate for FY25 for RoCE is 0.7%, again behind the peers. 

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. reported a return on equity (RoE) of -5.1% in the last 12 months, down from -0.7% in FY24. The market consensus projects an RoE of -0.7% in FY25, again behind its peers. 

The ratio of return on invested capital (RoIC) to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) has been 0.0 in the past several years. This ratio implies a fragile shareholder value creation. 

The institutional, legal, and compliance risks associated with the company's country are minimal. In combination with stringent business standards, shareholder rights are very highly protected.

CRWD boasts high trading liquidity. The average private investor can sell his common position in the stock immediately. Liquidity is usually quite stable and remains extremely favourable on the days with the lowest activity. However, please consider that under highly turbulent market conditions, the trading volume tends to decrease significantly. 

No other major risks have been identified.

The risk of default is moderate. We note resilient historical revenue growth, low margin volatility, solid cash flow generation, and an favourable capital structure, among the positive credit factors. Among the negative credit factors, we point to bleak profitability, negligible return on capital, and poor working capital management.

In highly turbulent market conditions, CRWD is as volatile as an index. In other words, the stock will move with the index in times of extreme market volatility or shocking company news. Standalone, the worst-day losses (less than 1% of the time) will likely be limited. 

In normal market circumstances, CRWD is volatile. Put differently, without outstanding market volatility or shocking company news, the stock's price will move much wider than the index. The stock's losses on its worst days (less than 1-5% of the time) will range from large to immense. 

Based on key historical and expected multiples, the stock is greatly overvalued relative to its peers. Specifically, the stock is 'expensive' on P/E, overvalued on EV/EBITDA, overpriced on P/FCF. 

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CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

$ 465.51

4

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

$ 465.51

4

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 465.51

About

About

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

$ 465.51

4

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

$ 465.51

4

Risk factor

Profitability factor

Risk / Profitability

About

About

Risk factor

Profitability factor

$ 465.51

About

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