The war in the Middle East, which has deprived the world of about 20% of the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, is changing expectations about global inflation, economic growth and the outlook for monetary policy. An average oil price of $150 or even $200 a barrel no longer seems impossible to analysts, and such a rise could reignite inflation.

'An incredible shift': where two weeks of war in Iran has taken the world economy

The European Central Bank (ECB) <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260205~001d26959b.en.html">kept</a> interest rates unchanged - this is the fifth time in a row that the regulator has made such a decision. On February 5, this happened against the background of European officials' assessments of the economic consequences of the euro appreciation and renewed unpredictability in trade relations, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/ecb-holds-rates-as-euro-rally-and-tariffs-threaten-economy">writes</a>.

ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth time in a row

Core inflation excluding food and energy prices was the lowest since October 2021

Eurozone inflation slowed to its lowest in more than a year. What to expect from the ECB?

Alphabet Inc.

Amazon.com, Inc.

Palantir Technologies Inc.

The main economic event this week for Wall Street will be the release of January's US jobs report - assuming there is no government shutdown (shutdown). Current funding expired on January 30. The White House and Democrats have reached an agreement that will avoid a shutdown, but the parliament will be able to vote on the funding bill only on February 2, Barron's <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-amazon-disney-alphabet-palantir-and-more-to-watch-this-week-237b1b53?mod=RTA#:~:text=This%20week%E2%80%99s%20economic,midnight%20on%20Friday.">notes</a>.

Google and Amazon earnings, US employment: what investors need to know this week

The heads of leading central banks around the world have expressed solidarity with the head of the US Federal Reserve, a criminal investigation has been launched against Jerome Powell in the States

'Own goal': investment fund managers on risks over Trump's fight with the Fed

The cycle of monetary policy easing by the world's leading central banks has come to an end. But regulators may have to raise rates already this year. This may become one of the key risks for the markets.

Central banks could raise rates in 2026. This is the "pin" for the market bubble

lululemon athletica inc.

Tesla, Inc.

In Europe, the ECB paused rate cuts, signaling confidence in the economy's resilience. The IPO market comes alive with the strong debut of medtech company Medline. New investor OpenAI could value it at $830 billion - more expensive than Elon Musk's SpaceX. The U.S. is increasing pressure on the commodities sector, forcing Lukoil to sell off foreign assets or accept external management amid sanctions. The main events from December 15 to 19 are in our review.

Highlights of the week: OpenAI's $830 billion valuation, ECB pause and Tesla records

The European Central Bank, as expected, on Thursday, December 18, kept the interest rate unchanged and raised some forecasts for economic growth and inflation, which is likely to strengthen investor forecasts for the absence of further rate cuts, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-keeps-rates-steady-nudges-up-growth-forecast-2025-12-18/">writes</a> Reuters. The ECB keeping the rate unchanged can be considered a signal of confidence in the current state of the eurozone economy: growth exceeds expectations, and inflation, despite external trade shocks, remains close to the regulator's target benchmarks, the agency notes.

ECB keeps interest rate unchanged for the fourth time in a row

At the same time, strong price pressures in the services sector are offset by falling energy prices

Eurozone inflation unexpectedly accelerated in November

The European regulator does not agree that a bubble has formed in the market

Fear of lost profits led to inflated valuations of bigtechs, ECB confident. What are the risks

Apple Inc.

Oracle Corporation

Adobe Inc.

Data on inflation in the United States this week will be a key factor for Wall Street ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, the results of which are expected on September 17, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-inflation-france-confidence-vote-ecb-in-focus-a8e5cdc7?mod=economy_more_article_pos2#:~:text=U.S.%20inflation%20data%20in%20the%20coming%20week%20will%20be%20the%20next%20key%20data%20ahead%20of%20a%20Federal%20Reserve%20interest%2Drate%20decision%20on%20September%2017.%20Investors%20anticipate%20that%20rate%20cuts%20will%20resume%20from%20this%20month%2C%20but%20the%20pace%20of%20reductions%20beyond%20that%20remains%20uncertain.">writes</a> The Wall Street Journal. The stock market expects the regulator to resume rate cuts in September, but the pace of further easing of monetary policy remains uncertain, the newspaper notes.

US inflation, the crisis in France and the ECB: what investors need to know this week

Price growth in the eurozone in August amounted to 2.1%, which is more than experts predicted. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained unchanged compared to July. The European Central Bank will decide on interest rates in September, and the consensus view is that it will leave them unchanged, as in July.