JPMorgan Chase & Co.

War in the Middle East could lead to a larger increase in U.S. interest rates than the market expects, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon <a href="https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters">said</a> in his annual letter to shareholders on April 6. He estimates that a war with Iran could trigger oil and commodity price shocks and reshape global supply chains, which in turn would keep inflation elevated.

'Risk of lasting shocks': Dimon warned of war's impact on US economy

Fears of stagflation amid war with Iran have led to a sharp decline in the global debt market: in March, the value of bonds fell by more than $2.5 trillion. For the bond market, this could be the largest monthly decline in more than three years, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-23/bonds-lose-2-5-trillion-in-iran-war-wipeout-that-mirrors-2022">writes.</a>

Bond market lost $2.5 trillion due to war with Iran. This is a repeat of the 2022 collapse

The war in the Middle East, which caused a sharp rise in oil prices, is forcing investors to radically revise their forecasts on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Traders now estimate almost 50% probability of a rate hike this year, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/63d642a9-2499-4969-af15-8bc282e4ce43?syn-25a6b1a6=1">writes the</a> Financial Times.

Radical reversal: traders have started to put a Fed rate hike in their forecasts 

UK and US bond yield gap hits highest since 2011

The dollar fell at the strongest pace since January. Negative factors outweighed the oil rally

This is the sixth consecutive time the ECB has made such a decision

The European Central Bank, following the Fed, kept rates unchanged amid the war

Traders do not expect monetary policy easing at the next Fed meeting

Trump demanded the Fed have a "special meeting" to cut rates "right now"

NVIDIA Corporation

Micron Technology, Inc.

FedEx Corporation

Oil prices have soared more than 40% since the start of the Iranian crisis: on the morning of March 16, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@LCO.1">Brent</a> futures are trading near $105 and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1">WTI</a> futures are trading around $100 per barrel. This macroeconomic environment complicates the task of the US Federal Reserve, which will have to make a decision on the interest rate this week.

Fed rate, oil price and Micron report: what investors need to know this week

Earlier, Morgan Stanley warned that the Fed may postpone monetary policy easing

The market has little hope of a Fed rate cut this year. Oil prices are to blame

The European Central Bank (ECB) <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260205~001d26959b.en.html">kept</a> interest rates unchanged - this is the fifth time in a row that the regulator has made such a decision. On February 5, this happened against the background of European officials' assessments of the economic consequences of the euro appreciation and renewed unpredictability in trade relations, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/ecb-holds-rates-as-euro-rally-and-tariffs-threaten-economy">writes</a>.

ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth time in a row

In less than a month since the beginning of the year, gold is up nearly 30% and silver is up more than 60%

Gold soared above $5500, silver got close to $120. Is the market disconnected from reality?

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Bank of America Corporation

Two FOMC members favored a quarter percentage point rate cut

The Fed left the rate unchanged. What to expect next?

Intel Corporation

Netflix, Inc.

Johnson & Johnson

The shortened trading week - on January 19, stock exchanges in the U.S. will not open due to Martin Luther King Day - begins with the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, where <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-united-airlines-ge-aerospace-intel-cpe-cf2b31d3?mod=hp_latestnews#:~:text=where%20at%20least%2060%20heads%20of%20state%20are%20expected">dozens of</a> heads of state will gather. President Trump is expected to speak at the WEF on Wednesday, January 21, Yahoo Finance <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-in-davos-netflix-and-intel-results-on-deck-as-earnings-season-ramps-what-to-watch-this-week-123046447.html#:~:text=The%20first%20is%20President%20Trump%27s%20speech%20at%20the%20World%20Economic%20Forum%20in%20Davos%2C%20Switzerland%2C%20which%20is%20expected%20to%20take%20place%20on%20Wednesday%20morning%20ET.">reported</a>.

Interest rates