The withdrawal of the third largest oil producer in the group from OPEC could weaken the cartel's influence and increase volatility amid the geopolitical crisis, analysts warned, commenting on the UAE's decision to <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/arabskie-emiraty-vyhodat-iz-opek-i-opek">withdraw</a> from OPEC. This step, experts warn, threatens long-term consequences for the oil market and the organization itself. The Arab Emirates is going to withdraw from OPEC on Ma 1.

"The cartel has lost its former influence": what does the Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC mean?

On May 1, the UAE will leave OPEC, the association of oil-exporting countries, after almost 60 years of cooperation. The Emirates joined the organization in 1967. Before the Iran war, the UAE was OPEC's third-largest producer, accounting for about 12% of the group's total output. The country will also leave OPEC+, an association that also includes a number of major oil producers including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Sergey Pigarev, senior analyst at Freedom Finance Global, wrote for Oninvest about what this decision means for the oil market.

The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ as of Ma 1. Who will be the winners and who will be the losers

Contrary to the status of "safe harbor", for the last two months - since the beginning of the military conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran in late February - gold has lost almost 11% of its value. However, analysts are confident: the precious metal will grow, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-have-lost-nearly-11-since-the-iran-war-began-reasons-to-buy-the-metal-are-piling-up-again-87cc5158?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore">writes</a> MarketWatch.

Gold has lost almost 15% in two months of war. Why do analysts expect it to rise?

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC and OPEC+), Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/">writes,</a> pointing out that such a move would be a serious blow to the group and its de facto leader - Saudi Arabia - amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. As of February 2026, the UAE was OPEC's third-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/uae-opec-oil-iran.html">specifies</a>.

Arab Emirates withdraws from OPEC and OPEC+

The first shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) since the war in the Middle East began two months ago appears to have left the Persian Gulf after passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-28/first-lng-shipment-since-iran-war-began-appears-to-exit-hormuz?srnd=homepage-europe">writes,</a> citing ship tracking data.

The first LNG tanker in two months of war has left the Persian Gulf. What about prices?

BP p.l.c.

Shell plc

TotalEnergies SE

UK supermajor beats forecasts through 'exceptional' trading performance

BP profits hit highest since 2023 thanks to super profits from Iran war

Europe faces recession if the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz is not resolved within a month, according to Mark Dowding, director of bond investments at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. "I think it will become inevitable," Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-27/rbc-bluebay-s-dowding-sees-recession-risk-for-europe-on-iran-war">quoted the </a>financier as saying.

Europe faces recession if Strait of Hormuz crisis not resolved in a month - RBC

ARC Resources Ltd.

British-Dutch oil and gas giant Shell has agreed to buy Canadian oil and gas producer ARC Resources in a deal worth 22 billion Canadian dollars (about $16.4 billion), including net debt, the companies <a href="https://www.arcresources.com/news-releases/arc-resources-ltd-announces-agreement-to-be-acquired-by-shell-plc/">said</a>. It will be Shell's largest acquisition since it bought gas producer BG Group in 2016, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/shell-buy-arc-resources-164-billion-deal-2026-04-27/">noted</a>.

Biggest deal in 10 years: Shell will spend $16 billion to buy a Canadian company

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for this year due to production cuts in the Middle East, Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/analysts-reassess-oil-price-estimates-iran-conflict-disrupts-markets-2026-04-27/">writes</a>. In the most negative scenario, the bank's analysts admit that in the fourth quarter it will average $120 per barrel, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/448b06dd-6f8e-455a-add8-3d64e9d96d8b">reports the</a> Financial Times. Supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will only recover by the end of June, Goldman predicted. It previously expected full exports to return in mid-Ma.

Goldman admits oil at $120: he expects supply to recover no sooner than the end of June

Exxon Mobil Corporation

British BP's papers have broken into the leaders of the oil and gas sector on the stock market amid the conflict between the U.S. and Israel with Iran, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-27/bp-gains-on-exxon-to-emerge-as-top-big-oil-stock-during-iran-war">noted</a>. While the competitors of the British company (in particular, Exxon Mobil) face large-scale disruptions in production due to the war in the Middle East, BP is preparing to report on April 28 on <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/bp-zaavila-ob-isklucitel-nyh-rezul-tatah-torgovli-neft-u-na-fone-vojny">"exceptional" profit</a> in oil trading, the agency notes.

BP's shares have surged to the top of the oil sector amid the war. Is it worth buying them?

Ma 1, Russia <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-kazakhstan-oil-pipeline-energy-crisis-strait-of-hormuz-germany-berlin/a-76895743">will block</a> supplies of Kazakh oil to the PCK refinery in Schwedt. This refinery supplies more than 90% of Berlin's needs in diesel fuel, heating fuel and gasoline. PCK Schwedt was formerly owned by Rosneft; after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, German authorities confiscated it. The oil was replaced with Kazakhstani oil, which is supplied through the Druzhba pipeline through Russian territory. And now Moscow is blocking these supplies. Sergey Vakulenko, an oil industry expert, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sergey.vakulenko.7/posts/pfbid0kYNHjQ8yjH5G7qzGuAT6zqDe5ZS2Rwqs7pMitkALVb4SWWuTRLTfSCk8HRRTVhgql">believes</a> that quarreling with Kazakhstan in the current circumstances is not a good idea.

Russian Federation blocks Kazakh oil supplies to Germany: they provide fuel for Berlin

Iran has handed the United States a new proposal within the dialog on ending the war in the Middle East: to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict by postponing nuclear talks to a later stage, an unnamed U.S. official and two sources familiar with the situation <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/04/27/iran-us-hormuz-strait-nuclear-talks-proposal-pakistan">told</a> Axios. However, these reports managed to slow the growth of oil prices, which fell to $106 per barrel on April 27 only briefly - at the time of publication Brent jumped back above $107.

Oil