Astana and Baghdad deny the possibility of changing course and leaving the oil cartel

From Kazakhstan to Venezuela: which OPEC+ countries may leave the alliance after the UAE?

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Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Capital Markets Research, Freedom Broker.

Morning in New York: Fed rate hike and megacaps

Broadcom Inc.

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The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices went into negative territory at the end of trading on April 28 - after two trading sessions completed at record highs. Investors were concerned when The Wall Street Journal sources reported that OpenAI failed to meet its own revenue and user growth targets. While OpenAI denied these suspicions, they affected stocks across the AI industry. In addition, oil prices rose again after the UAE decided to withdraw from OPEC.

Concerns about slowing OpenAI growth interrupted a string of S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq records

The withdrawal of the third largest oil producer in the group from OPEC could weaken the cartel's influence and increase volatility amid the geopolitical crisis, analysts warned, commenting on the UAE's decision to <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/arabskie-emiraty-vyhodat-iz-opek-i-opek">withdraw</a> from OPEC. This step, experts warn, threatens long-term consequences for the oil market and the organization itself. The Arab Emirates is going to withdraw from OPEC on Ma 1.

"The cartel has lost its former influence": what does the Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC mean?

On May 1, the UAE will leave OPEC, the association of oil-exporting countries, after almost 60 years of cooperation. The Emirates joined the organization in 1967. Before the Iran war, the UAE was OPEC's third-largest producer, accounting for about 12% of the group's total output. The country will also leave OPEC+, an association that also includes a number of major oil producers including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Sergey Pigarev, senior analyst at Freedom Finance Global, wrote for Oninvest about what this decision means for the oil market.

The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ as of Ma 1. Who will be the winners and who will be the losers

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC and OPEC+), Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/">writes,</a> pointing out that such a move would be a serious blow to the group and its de facto leader - Saudi Arabia - amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. As of February 2026, the UAE was OPEC's third-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/uae-opec-oil-iran.html">specifies</a>.

Arab Emirates withdraws from OPEC and OPEC+

OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500 thousand barrels per day, according to the cartel's monthly<a href="https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html"> report</a>. World demand for oil in the second quarter is now estimated at an average of 105.07 million barrels per day against 105.57 million barrels in the previous forecast.

OPEC cuts oil demand forecast for second quarter due to Iran war

KazMunayGas

KazTransOil

The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in energy prices in the world. Olga Moshkina, Junior Director for Corporate Ratings at Expert RA Agency, argues whether this conflict is beneficial for Kazakhstan's economy, which depends on oil revenues.

War in the Middle East: Can Kazakhstan capitalize on it?

Kazakhstan's oil sector has been stagnating for several years, partly due to the need to comply with OPEC+ quotas, which the country does not always strictly adhere to. In 2026, production will have to be restricted even further to compensate for past excesses. But can Kazakhstan use this as an incentive for development? Kirill Lysenko, an analyst for sovereign and regional ratings at Expert RA, answers this question.

Will Kazakhstan turn OPEC+ oil production restrictions into a driver for its economic development?

Over the past three weeks, investment banks have reduced their forecasts for the price of Brent oil for 2026 and 2027, according to Bloomberg consensus data, which were reviewed by Oninvest. The average expected oil price for 2026 decreased by 1.6% to $61.9, and for 2027 - by 2% to $66.5. Deutsche Bank has the most pessimistic forecast for next year among investment banks - $55 per barrel.

Threats at sea and onshore: what will affect the oil market in 2026

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BP p.l.c.

The cost of Brent crude oil collapsed by almost 4% in trading on November 12 due to the forecast of OPEC, which allowed the possibility of oversupply of raw materials on the market. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency said that demand for oil and gas may continue to grow until 2050 - contrary to past expectations.

The price of Brent crude oil collapsed by almost 4%. OPEC forecast reinforced fears of oversupply

He expects a barrel of Mark Brent to cost $60 in the first half of 2026