The share of equities in investors' portfolios has reached a record level since the end of 2024, so optimistic investors have not been for the past five years, a February survey of global fund managers conducted by Bank of America showed. Meanwhile, the amount of cash held in mutual fund portfolios is unusually low at just 3.4%. This bias in favor of riskier assets is dangerous, <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sentiment-risk-3bc44ebe">writes</a> Barron's. Over the past few years, stocks have been growing, and perhaps the desire to invest in them now is a consequence of cognitive distortions, psychologist Mikhail Tegin does not rule out. In his column for Oninvest, he discusses how this makes us act against logic and to the detriment of our investment portfolio.

Behavioral finance: how the brain gets in the way of making money in the marketplace

In one week, a new AI tool from Anthropic to automate clerks' work, <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/anthropic-i-openai-vypustili-obnovlenia-v-razgar-rasprodazi-na-rynke-eto-novyj-udar">led to</a> a big sell-off on Wall Street in several industries at once. Investors fear that the new AI capabilities could jeopardize traditional business models. Analysts from New Street Research believe that the fall in markets is due not so much to objective factors as to anxiety. In psychology, particularly cognitive-behavioral psychology, experts describe four rules by which an anxious person lives. In investments, they turn us from analysts into indecisive people or even panickers. Psychologist Mikhail Tegin explains how these mechanisms work on the stock market and how to turn them to your advantage.

Four rules of anxiety: how to stop fearing the AI apocalypse and not expect the worst

Sleep-deprived people <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11611806/">stop perceiving</a> negative feedback, i.e. a losing trade no longer makes the tired person's brain adjust the investment strategy. At the same time, the brain switches to the energy-saving mode and starts using simplified thinking patterns. And although in the world of finance it is commonly believed that success depends on intelligence, in reality this is far from true. Let's see how fatigue not only makes us risky, but also inconsistent in our investments.

The cost of burnout: how sleep deprivation and everyday stress reduce investment returns

In a year into his second term, US President Donald Trump has forced new trade deals on many of Washington's allies. After he declared the first trade war last April, investors <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-poised-for-biggest-two-day-wipeout-in-history-as-marketloses-9-6-trillion-since-inauguration-day-430919f6">lost</a> about $6.6 trillion in the U.S. stock market in two days. When he backtracked in negotiations, indexes <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/stocks-rally-trump-tariff-pause-after-market-rout-2025-04-09/">soared</a>, with the S&amp;P 500 up 7% and the Nasdaq <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/stocks-rally-trump-tariff-pause-after-market-rout-2025-04-09/">up</a> more than 9%. For investors, Trump's negotiating strategy has become a significant market risk factor.

Donald Trump's trade wars: how the US president's negotiating strategy has become a market risk factor for investors

The VIX fear index fluctuated in a 19% range this week, first rising to 20.1 points as it approached the edge of the stress zone, and then falling about 16%. Investors were reacting not to objective macroeconomic data but to Donald Trump's plans for Greenland - as a result, U.S. stocks <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cb1a8211-ac60-4cb2-b68f-955f3d0f98f5">lost</a> more than $1 trillion on Tuesday. In such an environment, reactive decisions can lead to financial losses. Why discipline and system help an investor to act more effectively than intuition and quick analytics - explains psychologist Mikhail Tegin.

$1 trillion loss in a day on fear: How market discipline saves money

The festive reset easily pushes us toward New Year's resolutions. As we <a href="https://oninvest.com/article/prazdnicnye-obesania-pocemu-oni-bol-se-cem-prosto-spisok-pozelanij">wrote</a> earlier, the plan to become an effective investor and double your income will have to be put into practice at some point.  But almost immediately, our commitments cease to be a source of motivation and begin to weigh on us — every glance at the market or banking app increases our stress. The reason is not weak willpower, but how the brain works and the cognitive traps we create for ourselves.

New Year's resolutions as a cognitive trap: what prevents us from seeing our plans through to the end

The New Year and Christmas often feel like a clean slate, a new phase: an opportunity to reset old habits, "reset" failures and lay the foundation for future success. We make solemn promises to ourselves - commitments: to start running, to read more books or, especially important for investing, to finally strategize and increase our income.

Holiday promises: why they're more than just a wish list

Intuitively, it may seem that for the long-term investor, the best companies are those that consistently make money by selling basic necessities to people, whether the economy is growing or declining. However, a recent<a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w34402"> article</a> published by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research shows that the market is taking a toll on that psychological comfort. Issuers whose businesses are more dependent on the state of the economy have historically generated higher returns than securities of companies with stable earnings.

How crises affect stock returns: cyclical and defensive securities

Have you ever experienced that despite all your knowledge about diversification and long-term planning, you impulsively buy shares of a "hot" company at some point, and then sell them with the same zeal at the first correction? Have you ever wondered why you do this? Or why you avoid the stock market for years, preferring to keep your money only on deposit, although inflation often eats up all the income? The answer to these questions lies not only in the economic news or even in how you interpreted it, but in how you "see" money - in your unconscious beliefs. These are called Money Scripts - Money Scripts. Let's analyze them using the examples of characters from the TV series "Game of Thrones".

The psychology of money and "Game of Thrones": how money scripts affect investments

GameStop Corp.

Robinhood Markets, Inc.

Retail investing has undergone a revolution in recent years. Small traders are no longer disorganized individuals, sometimes with a legion of names. Telegram channels with signals, threads on Reddit, profile forums, and "auto follow" functions in brokerage applications have created the illusion that collective intelligence can beat the market.

Dangerous unity: how social media is worsening stock trading results

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Warren Buffett doesn't just live a long life. In his 95 years, he is actively working, going to the office every day. What feeds this energy and why do some people retire at 65, while others don't seem to think about slowing down? A medical professional would probably answer something about proper nutrition and a healthy lifestyle. For the psychologist, however, the answer lies more in the motivation we choose in and for our lives. That is, why we actually live. This "longevity motivation" is what we can realize and develop in ourselves in order not only to prolong our years, but also to fill them with meaningful content.

Lessons from Warren Buffett: how to invest in yourself and live to 100 years old

In order to determine what is going on in the financial markets, it is necessary to understand what is going on in the minds of investors. Financial markets reflect the human nervous system much more accurately than the state of the economy, believes psychologist Mikhail Tegin.Why the "ideal rational" from textbooks does not work, how our lifestyle and wallet thickness are connected, why "we all come from childhood"? Oninvest is starting a series of materials on why rationality remains a theory, while emotions and cognitive distortions become the real cause of prices and bubbles. Series one.

Psychology