A Problem Worth Billions: How Much Is the EU Stock Market Losing Due to Mental Health Disorders?
European public companies are losing hundreds of billions of euros in profits and value due to mental health disorders. Photo: Ádám Tötös / Unsplash
The link between the stock market and investor psychology is one of the main topics of research in the field of behavioral finance. As a financial journalist and practicing psychologist, I decided to calculate how much the European stock market loses due to mental health disorders, and what these losses mean for investors. Aldiyar Anuarbekov, an analyst at Oninvest, helped me with this.
The World's "Major" Mental Disorders
More than 1.17 billion people worldwide live with mental disorders; over the past 36 years, the number of reported cases has risen by 95.5%, with the biggest spike occurring after the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the British medical journal *The Lancet*. The increase in cases of anxiety and depressive disorders, anorexia nervosa, bulimia, and schizophrenia is particularly noticeable.
These aren’t just numbers on paper—according to OECD estimates, poor mental health will cause the economies of the 27 EU countries to lose an average of 1.7% of GDP annually through 2050. And this refers only to the economic impact through the labor market: absenteeism (missing work), presenteeism (reduced productivity while at work), and lower employment (when people are simply not working). In assessing the impact on Europe’s economy, the OECD takes into account only major depressive disorders, generalized anxiety disorders, and disorders related to alcohol use.
This restriction is an advantage for calculations, since it allows for a conservative estimate rather than an inflated one, argues Oninvest analyst Aldiyar Anuarbekov.
From Labor Losses to Business Revenue
According to Eurostat, the GDP of the 27 EU countries in 2025 was €18.8 trillion. Thus, the economic losses resulting from mental disorders could have amounted to approximately €300 billion last year.
According to data from *Government at a Glance 2024*, approximately 75%–80% of the total workforce in Europe is employed in the private sector.
It turns out that the private sector’s losses amount to €225–240 billion per year. This represents lost value added from human labor.
According to Eurostat, approximately 40% of the value added generated by companies comes from operating profit. However, not all of this amount becomes income for the owners: it is used to cover depreciation, interest, and other mandatory expenses. According to data from Eurostat and the ECB, after these deductions, companies retain about 69% of their operating profit.
Applying these percentages to the figures for lost value added from human labor, it turns out that the lost net profit of private businesses could amount to approximately €60–65 billion per year.
According to Eurostat, large companies (with 250 or more employees) account for about 35% of employment in the business sector. We used these companies in our calculations, as they form the basis of the STOXX Europe 600 index.
As a result, the total amount of lost net profit for EU public companies alone amounts to approximately €21–23 billion per year.
Since these losses recur every year, they can be estimated as a steady cash flow using the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, argues Aldiyar Anuarbekov. As a benchmark, we can use the forward P/E ratio for the STOXX Europe 600 index as of early 2026—15.9. At this level, the lost earnings of €21–23 billion correspond to approximately €370–395 billion in potential market value for publicly traded companies in the EU.
What risks does this pose to investors?
It is clear that this calculation is approximate and based on assumptions. But it gives an idea of the fact that the losses to the European market resulting from mental disorders are significant enough to be taken into account in business valuations and corporate decision-making, says Aldiyar Anuarbekov.
We’re not talking about a fraction of a percent, but about hundreds of billions of euros in lost profits and value—that is, roughly 2.6–2.9% of the total market capitalization of the European market. The lower end of the range is roughly one and a half times the market capitalization of luxury giant LVMH, while the upper end is just under twice the market capitalization of Novo Nordisk.
If these losses persist on an ongoing basis, it makes sense for the market to factor them into earnings expectations, multiples, and market capitalization.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
