"A Pure Expression of Power": How Christopher Nolan's "Odyssey" Will Change IMAX

Christopher Nolan’s film *Odyssey* was released nationwide on July 17 and grossed $652 million worldwide in its first 10 days. It could become one of the most commercially successful films for IMAX as well: for the first time in history, the entire film was shot using the company’s special high-resolution cameras. It is currently playing in IMAX theaters. What are analysts saying about this?

The opening weekend of Christopher Nolan’s three-hour film became the highest-grossing in IMAX history—it brought in $52 million, or 20% of the film’s worldwide box office receipts. IMAX theaters capable of screening films shot on 70-mm wide-format film (more than 640,000 meters of such film were used to shoot “Odyssey” alone), maintained very high occupancy rates in the following weekends as well: 85% of seats were sold for the second weekend, 72% for the third, and 65% for the fourth (as of July 21), the company reported. There are only 41 such theaters worldwide, or less than 1% of all theaters in the world.

According to IMAX CEO Rich Gelfond, this is the best opening for a film in the company’s history. However, the box office figures reported so far do not take into account the fact that in China (the world’s second-largest film market), South Korea, and Japan, *Odyssey* will be released later—in August and September.

Since July 17, IMAX shares have risen by more than 15% on the stock market. Following the premiere of *Odyssey* on July 23, IMAX reported its second-quarter results for this year. Box office receipts from the film are not reflected in these financial results. Even so, the company’s revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $103 million, exceeding market expectations of $94 million. Adjusted net income more than doubled over the year to $24.2 million, earnings per share rose 65% to $0.43, and adjusted EBITDA increased 22.8% to $48 million, with a margin on this metric of nearly 47%.

IMAX shares rose 11.86% on the day of the earnings report—to nearly $44.

Since *Odyssey* was released nationwide, eight out of 13 analysts have raised their price targets for IMAX stock. Currently, the average target price for the company’s stock is $50.5 with a “buy” rating—that’s 12% higher than the closing price on July 27.

Among those who raised their price targets were analysts at Wedbush. On July 24, they raised their target from $46 to $54 and maintained their “outperform” rating, calling *Odyssey* “the purest expression of IMAX’s strength.” During a conference call with analysts, IMAX management confirmed its annual box office target of $1.4 billion worldwide. This is approximately 12% more than last year, according to Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese in a research note (available on Oninvest).

In a July 23 note (with an “outperform” rating and a price target of $50), JPMorgan notes that IMAX is receiving a higher share of the box office revenue from *Odyssey* — this is a “bonus” for the company subsidizing a portion of theaters’ costs for producing 70-millimeter theatrical prints—an average of $153,000 per screen.

Even before Nolan’s film was released, Roth Capital analyst Eric Handler estimated that it would bring in $215 million for IMAX from screenings in dedicated theaters alone over the course of its entire run. Box office receipts from these screens have already totaled $140 million worldwide, or about 22% of the film’s global box office to date.

Not all analysts share this optimism. Wells Fargo analyst Omar Mejias downgraded IMAX’s rating from “outperform” to “neutral”; following the release of the quarterly report, he raised his price target for IMAX shares from $41 to $45 but left the rating unchanged.

He points out the weak release schedule for the summer and fall. A total of 13 films are set to hit IMAX screens by the end of the year. But the biggest ones —including the Hunger Games prequel, *The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping*, and the finale of the *Dune* trilogy—won’t hit theaters until November and December.

Another risk is a high-quality copy of the film leaking onto social media. *The Odyssey* has already faced this issue. A high-quality pirated copy appeared online on July 25 on Platform X. According to the BBC, the post featuring the film garnered 2.1 million views in two and a half hours before it was taken down. And the next day, as Variety reports, several lower-quality copies of *The Odyssey* appeared online. They were viewed about 50,000 more times within two hours.

According to estimates by the Motion Picture Association of America, piracy costs the film industry $1.3 billion a year, or 15% of potential box office revenue. According to estimates by economists at Carnegie Mellon University, a leak of a film copy before its premiere increases box office losses by an average of 19.1% compared to a leak after the film’s theatrical release.

However, according to Variety, the current leaks are unlikely to significantly hurt *Odyssey*’s box office receipts, which means the potential risk to IMAX figures is also low.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor