"A Very Difficult Situation": Could Anthropic Postpone Its IPO Due to the AI Stock Sell-Off?

A sell-off in tech stocks could force Anthropic to postpone its IPO or accept a lower valuation, according to MarketWatch. Some potential investors believe the company’s fair value should be closer to $1 trillion rather than the $2 trillion Anthropic had originally anticipated.

Current market conditions are putting Anthropic in a “very difficult position,” Jay Goldberg, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, told MarketWatch. Over the past month, the tech sector has been falling amid expectations of rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran, and mounting debt in the AI industry. The results of the U.S. midterm congressional elections have added to the pressure: investors fear that a new Democratic majority in Congress and victories by Democratic governors will slow down the construction of data centers.

Anthropic aims to go public before Thanksgiving, which falls on November 26 this year. However, traders on the Polymarket platform currently estimate the probability of Anthropic going public by December at 57%, down from nearly 90% at the end of October.

According to Goldberg, Anthropic has enough cash reserves to last at least nine months if it decides to postpone its IPO. As of September 30, the company had $95.6 billion in cash on its balance sheet, according to its prospectus. The company has also entered into agreements to purchase computing power and infrastructure worth $895.4 billion, of which $69.8 billion is due by the end of September of next year.

However, according to Goldberg, the main problem is that the IPO has already been postponed two or three times. Anthropic has never formally announced an IPO date, but informally, the timeline has shifted: the listing was originally expected in late September or early October.

Anthropic is more likely to continue preparing for its IPO than to postpone it, according to Lior Prosor, managing partner of the venture capital fund Deep33. However, he acknowledges that the company and its organizers may agree to a deeper discount on the valuation due to high volatility.

Earlier this year, investors expected Anthropic’s valuation to reach $2 trillion during its IPO, breaking SpaceX’s record. Following a massive sell-off of AI stocks on November 5, The Wall Street Journal reported that potential investors believe Anthropic’s valuation might have to be lowered to closer to $1 trillion, as they are unsure whether market participants are ready to increase their investments in AI assets amid falling risk appetite.

Goldberg suggests that last week’s sell-off in the tech sector was partly due to Anthropic’s own financial results, which the company disclosed in an updated prospectus on Monday. In the third quarter, the company’s revenue totaled approximately $17 billion—an increase of 1,127% from a year earlier and 47% higher than the previous quarter. However, the pace of quarterly growth slowed: in the second quarter, it stood at 144%. During its pre-IPO roadshow, the company will need to explain to investors whether the slowdown is due to infrastructure constraints or a decline in demand.

“Anthropic’s roadshow, if it takes place, could be a positive catalyst,” Goldberg noted. “But it could also backfire.”

Anthropic declined to comment.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor