"AI Nostradamus" has revealed a new investment. These stocks have become the top performers on the Nikkei 225

The hedge fund Situational Awareness, led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner—nicknamed the “AI Nostradamus”—has disclosed an investment in server component manufacturer Taiyo Yuden. On August 12, the company’s shares rose 7.5% in Tokyo and were the top gainer on Japan’s Nikkei 225 blue-chip index.

The fund began buying Taiyo Yuden shares in late June, increased its stake to 16.6%, and then reduced it, according to a series of regulatory filings reviewed by Bloomberg. Situational Awareness reported to Japan’s Ministry of Finance that it had exceeded the 5% threshold more than a month after the deadline set by regulators. Documents released throughout the day showed that the position was increased through July 22, and the latest notification recorded a remaining stake of 4.4%.

Taiyo Yuden manufactures multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs)—components used in smartphones, automobiles, industrial equipment, and, crucially in this case, artificial intelligence servers, explains MarketWatch. No one knew that Aschenbrenner’s fund, known for its keen eye for AI-sector stocks, held even a small stake in this company.

Those who limited themselves to the fund’s first filing may have missed the key point: in subsequent documents, Situational Awareness disclosed that it had recently been selling Taiyo Yuden shares, as MarketWatch points out. On July 28, the fund sold 185,200 shares; on July 30, it sold 1.7 million; and on August 3, it conducted an over-the-counter transaction for 14.6 million, the publication reports. It is unclear from the disclosure who owns the remaining shares: the stake could be held by the fund itself, by Citadel—which bought a significant portion of Situational Awareness’s assets at a discount when the fund ran into trouble—or by someone else, the publication notes.

Situational Awareness — a highly leveraged fund. In July, it was forced to sell off its publicly traded stocks due to a sharp drop in the value of its investments in the technology sector. After that, Aschenbrenner vowed to stop borrowing and resumed investing in early August.

"Taiyo Yuden shares are reacting positively to the news of a large stake—at least for now," Bloomberg quotes Ikuo Mitsui, a manager at Aizawa Securities, as saying. As a result of the recent downturn, the Japanese company’s stock price has fallen by more than half from its July peak, making its valuation look attractive. However, concerns about supply and demand for MLCCs could limit the impact of the news on the stock, the strategist added.

Taiyo Yuden’s stock soared 540% in the first half of 2026—investors expected demand for MLCCs to remain strong, according to Bloomberg. The stock price then fell due to global jitters over AI-related investments, but it is still up 189% year-to-date.

Taiyo Yuden is not well known to the general public, but investors hold it in high regard: according to FactSet, the company is trading at a P/E ratio of 47, MarketWatch reports. The consensus among 16 analysts tracked by S&P Global is “Outperform.” Their average price target of 16,350 yen is 59% higher than the stock’s closing price on August 12.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor