Freedom Broker puts out short-term trade idea on drone maker AIRO with 50% upside

Shares of small-cap drone and counter-drone systems maker AIRO Group could gain around 50% in the near term, Freedom Broker says in a new short-term trade idea note. The company is seeking access to U.S. government procurement programs, which makes its stock attractive as a speculative “buy,” the analysts said.

Freedom Broker set a short-term target price for AIRO stock of $14 per share over an investment horizon of two months, according to the note, seen by Oninvest. AIRO closed at $9.46 per share on Tuesday, implying upside of 48%.

AIRO positions itself as a beneficiary of U.S. policies that prohibit federal agencies and their contractors from purchasing equipment from certain foreign companies, according to the Freedom note. The drone developer’s products are currently undergoing compliance reviews required by Washington, after which the management believes the company will gain access to U.S. federal contracts. That could become a key catalyst for a rerating of the stock, the analysts wrote.

Freedom noted that the U.S. drone sector received a fresh boost after the Trump administration and people in his orbit publicly backed increased investment in drone technologies. That has fueled interest in smaller industry players, including AIRO, the analysts said.

AIRO is a small-cap company in the red. In the first quarter, its revenue fell around 25% year over year to $8.9 million, the operating loss widened 450% to minus $17.2 million, and the net loss ballooned 680% to minus $15.5 million.

Government contractors’ results depend on contract execution timelines, production schedules, and delivery milestones, AIRO noted. The company also attributed the performance to higher cost of sales and continued investments in production scaling.

At the same time, AIRO reaffirmed its 2026 revenue growth outlook of 15-25%, supported by increased drone deliveries, expanded manufacturing capacity, and continued international demand for its products.

Freedom also highlighted the stock’s high volatility and significant short interest, which stands at around 13%. According to the note, this creates the conditions for a short squeeze if a strong bullish trend emerges in the market, potentially driven by geopolitical developments or announcements of new contracts.

AIRO shares fell 3% in trading on Tuesday. The stock remains up around 16% year to date. It currently has two Wall Street analyst “buy” ratings versus one “hold.” The average target price is $18.00 per share, implying upside of around 90%.