Highlights of the week: US recession risks, SpaceX ambitions, war hits the luxury market

Rising oil prices, according to analysts' estimates, have raised the risk of recession in the US to 40% and could push inflation in the country to 5%. Automakers are recording supply disruptions and a slump in demand in the Middle East: Ferrari has started delivering supercars by airplanes, and the luxury sector has already lost $100 billion of capitalization. Against this background, OpenAI is preparing for an IPO, disclosing the risks of dependence on Microsoft, chip shortages and litigation, while Elon Musk's SpaceX may conduct the largest placement in history with a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion. The main events from March 23 to 27 - in our review.

EY-Parthenon analysts have raised the probability of recession in the US to 40% - amid rising oil prices due to the escalating conflict in Iran. According to their assessment, disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz increase inflationary pressure and may slow down economic growth. In the scenario of oil above $100 per barrel, inflation could accelerate to 5%, and GDP growth could decline by more than 1 p.p. Earlier, Goldman Sachs also raised its recession risk assessment to 30%, pointing to the pressure of expensive energy resources and tightening financial conditions.

Against this background, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its inflation forecast for the US to 4.2% in 2026. This is the highest among the G7 countries. Rising energy prices will simultaneously slow down the economy: GDP growth in the U.S. will be about 2% in 2026 and decline to 1.7% in 2027, the OECD forecasts.

Globally, world economic growth will slow to 2.9% in 2026. Higher energy prices will increase pressure on the economies of Europe, China and Japan, while the UK will face the most severe economic blow among the G7 countries, according to OECD estimates.

Automakers are recording supply disruptions and a decline in demand in the Middle East due to the US-Israeli war with Iran: the region's ports are partially inaccessible and new orders are almost non-existent. Manufacturers warn that it is almost impossible to redirect sales to other markets without losses.

Against this backdrop, Ferrari has moved to air-deliver some of its supercars, despite costs rising four to five times to fulfill priority orders. Bentley is using stockpiles, and Volkswagen expects pressure on sales of premium brands, while the region remains a key source of profit for the industry.

What else is there to read about it?

- Shares of the largest luxury companies fell sharply amid the conflict with Iran, losing more than 15% of their market value. Oninvest correspondent Vladislav Osipov investigated what is happening in the luxury market in his article "The war with Iran has deprived the luxury sector of $100 billion of capitalization".

- Escalation in the Middle East region has sharply reduced the flow of shoppers in Dubai's shopping malls. How long will the downturn in the region last? - in the article "The war in the Middle East has hit luxury: sales in Dubai shopping centers have collapsed".

SpaceX plans to raise about $75 billion in its IPO, raising its target by $25 billion and its valuation to $1.75 trillion, the Financial Times wrote, citing sources. Only five publicly traded companies in the US have a higher market capitalization. Among the initiatives being discussed at SpaceX are giving advantages to shareholders of Musk's other projects, as well as introducing non-standard terms for selling shares after listing, The Wall Street Journal wrote, citing sources.

SpaceX is also considering easing restrictions on the sale of shares to investors and may file a prospectus soon with the expectation of listing by June. However, too high level of control of Elon Musk over the parameters of the deal, in particular over the price and timing of the placement, alarms investors. Against the background of IPO preparation, the largest U.S. exchanges Nasdaq and NYSE simplify the rules of inclusion of large issuers in the indexes, which may accelerate the entry of SpaceX in the key benchmarks.

Shares of Puig - owner of Jean Paul Gaultier, Rabanne (formerly Paco Rabanne) and Dries Van Noten - rose more than 15% amid reports of merger talks with Estée Lauder. The possible combined company could be worth more than $40 billion, the Financial Times noted. Estée Lauder confirmed the fact of discussions, but noted that the final decision has not been made.

The deal could intensify competition with L'Oréal and merge major beauty brands, while it is a chance for Estée Lauder to accelerate business recovery and for Puig to consolidate growth after the IPO. Analysts point to the risks of implementation, but assume synergies and double-digit profit growth for the combined company in the first year.

OpenAI disclosed key business threats in a private financial document to investors, among them dependence on Microsoft, high capex, lawsuits and geopolitics, CNBC wrote. The company warned that breaking or weakening its partnership with Microsoft could negatively impact its financial position, while chip shortages and risks around Taiwan could disrupt the supply of computing capacity.

Other risks include a non-standard corporate structure, lawsuits from Elon Musk and ChatGPT users, and increasing competition with Microsoft itself. According to CNBC and WSJ sources, OpenAI will list in late 2026 at a potential valuation of about $1 trillion, making the ChatGPT developer's IPO one of the largest in history.

What else is there to read about AI?

- Viral in China, AI agent OpenClaw turns AI models like ChatGPT and Claude into tools capable of performing real tasks on a computer. How ready is it to replace the user? - Oninvest columnist Roman Kutuzov explored this question in his article "How to grow a lobster: I spent three days testing an AI agent, and here are my conclusions about it".

British fintech Revolut for 2025 increased profit before tax by 57% to $2.3 billion and revenue by 46% to $6 billion, beating analysts' forecasts. The growth figures were supported by an influx of new users: the number of retail customers increased by 30% to 68.3 million, and subscription revenue increased by 67% to $936 million. Card fees increased by 45% to $1.3 billion, and interest income increased by 23%, also to $1.3 billion.

The company is focusing on diversifying its business and developing loan products, and has obtained a full banking license in the UK. This should strengthen Revolut's position in the competition for deposits and accelerate international expansion.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor