Morning in New York: The news flow will set the tone for trading

A daily review and forecast of events in the U.S. stock market by Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Participants in the upcoming session will focus on the entry into force of new U.S. import tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on goods from 60 countries, including China, Japan, and EU member states. The White House has granted exemptions only for energy products, fertilizers, critical minerals, and goods whose trade is governed by the USMCA (with Canada and Mexico).

At the same time, there have been no significant changes in the parameters of these tariffs compared to the June proposals, so this news is unlikely to directly influence market trends. More importantly, the U.S. has effectively established a global tariff floor through a new legal mechanism. This makes tariffs a more stable component of the inflationary and foreign trade landscape. Their introduction increases costs for importers and creates an advantage for companies with localized production and significant influence over pricing.

Intel’s (INTC) quarterly earnings report became the most talked-about topic in the markets. Its stock rose 3–5% in response to the release and guidance that was more optimistic than average market expectations. The company’s management noted strong demand for server processors for AI infrastructure and raised its capital expenditure plan for 2026 from $18 billion to $20 billion, warning of a significant increase in investments in 2027. We believe that a repeat of what happened after the first-quarter earnings report—when INTC shares soared 24%—will not occur; however, the aforementioned comments from company management will provide moderate support for the AI narrative across the broader semiconductor sector.

This Friday, S&P Global will release its preliminary estimates of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July. The consensus forecast calls for the manufacturing PMI to remain at 54.4 points, while the services PMI is expected to rise to 51.5 points. The data should confirm the sustained growth of the U.S. economy. Stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish policy stance.

Data on new home sales for June will also be released (consensus: 607,000; May: 580,000). This release will provide insight into the stability of demand in the new-home market.

Before the market opens, Verizon Communications (VZ), American Express (AXP), NextEra Energy (NEE), SLB (SLB), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and Charter Communications (CHTR) will report their quarterly results.

S&P 500 futures are showing positive momentum. We assess the risk outlook for the upcoming session as neutral, with elevated volatility. Investors will be analyzing the impact of new trade restrictions on inflation, along with macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports.

— Tenet Healthcare (THC) shares are up nearly 12% following the release of quarterly results that beat average market expectations and an upward revision to its 2026 guidance. The company raised its forecast thanks to high volumes of medical services, strong results from its outpatient care division, and effective cost control.

— Despite a slight downward revision to its 2026 operating profit forecast, SAP (SAP) is up nearly 6%. The stock was buoyed by a 24% year-over-year increase in cloud revenue and a 26% rise in the cloud order backlog, confirming sustained demand for the company’s cloud solutions.

— Amkor Technology (AMKR) has signed a multi-year contract with Nvidia (NVDA) worth $1.5 billion to expand its advanced semiconductor packaging and testing capacity in the U.S. to meet growing demand from the AI industry. Against this backdrop, AMKR’s stock price is up about 10%.

— Shares of Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) soared 37% following the signing of an agreement to sell the company to the Spanish insurance group Mapfre for approximately $1.54 billion, or $105 per share. This represents a 44% premium over the previous session’s closing price. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, pending regulatory approvals.

— Edwards Lifesciences’ (EW) quarterly revenue and earnings exceeded market expectations, causing the company’s stock to rise 3%. The main driver was growth in sales of transcatheter aortic valve replacement systems. Revenue from the division specializing in mitral and tricuspid valve treatments increased by 47% year-over-year. The company also raised the lower end of its full-year revenue guidance.

— Deckers Outdoor (DECK) reported results for April–June that met or exceeded market expectations, yet its stock is down 3%. Investors were disappointed by the company’s guidance for the current quarter, which turned out to be more conservative than analysts’ average estimates, despite continued strong demand for the HOKA and UGG brands.

Trading on July 23 on U.S. stock markets ended in negative territory. The S&P 500 fell 1.21%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.87%, the Dow Jones declined 0.97%, and the Russell 2000 lost 0.67%. The correction was driven by the performance of shares in the largest technology companies. Among the “Magnificent Seven,” Alphabet (GOOGL: −7.1%) and Tesla (TSLA: −14.5%)—which had released their quarterly earnings reports the day before—experienced the most significant sell-off. Negative performance was also seen in the stocks of semiconductor manufacturers and software developers.

The industrial sector (XLI: +1.73%) emerged as a growth leader, supported by defense companies and equipment manufacturers. Durable goods suppliers (XLY: −4.61%) were among the underperformers, pressured by the aforementioned sell-off in Tesla shares and declines in the prices of other consumer sector stocks.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East served as an additional negative factor. Following Houthi attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea and statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of resuming a large-scale military operation against Iran, the price of WTI crude oil soared by 6.2%, exceeding $90 per barrel for the first time since June. During trading on July 24, however, the price of WTI fell by 2.8% to $89.7 per barrel.

Macroeconomic data reinforced expectations that the Fed would maintain its tight monetary policy. The number of initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, the lowest level since 1969, while the consensus forecast had called for an increase to 215,000 from 208,000 the previous week. The probability of a key rate hike at the Fed’s July 28–29 meeting rose significantly, putting additional pressure on risk assets.

— Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF: +16%) reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the most recent quarter that exceeded consensus estimates. Management expects financial results to improve further in the second half of the year due to higher contract prices, the integration of Stelco, and a recovery in demand from the automotive industry.

— Lockheed Martin’s (LMT: +10.4%) second-quarter revenue, profit, free cash flow, and order backlog all exceeded market consensus estimates. The company raised its guidance for 2026 thanks to steady demand for F-35 fighter jets and air and missile defense systems.

— Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO: +8.7%) reported second-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ expectations. Investors responded positively to the acceleration in organic growth, the strong performance of the Life Sciences Solutions division, and signs of a recovery in demand in end markets.

— RTX’s key financial metrics (RTX: +7.3%) exceeded consensus estimates. The Raytheon segment posted the highest growth rates, with revenue increasing 18% year-over-year due to higher shipments of air defense systems. Management raised its guidance for revenue, earnings, and free cash flow for the current year.

— American Airlines (AAL: −8.4%) reported quarterly results that beat market expectations, but its earnings forecast for July–September disappointed the investment community. The company was only able to partially offset the expected rise in jet fuel costs by raising fares.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor