Movies, running and AI skepticism: what the investor who predicted Lehman's collapse changed in his portfolio

David Einhorn, the founder of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, seriously revamped his portfolio last quarter, almost completely getting rid of HP securities in favor of companies from the industrial sector and media business. The most notable deal was the purchase of shares of Warner Bros. Discovery. Over the past quarter, the value of the fund's public portfolio grew by 12% to $2.85 billion.

Einhorn is named by Forbes as one of Wall Street's most closely watched investors. He attracted widespread attention in 2008, when he bet against Lehman Brothers just a few months before the bank's collapse. The investor admitted that 2025 was not an easy year: his traditional stock-picking strategy showed weak results, lagging behind the market, and the main profit for the fund this time came from investments in gold and copper.

Greenlight Capital entered the fourth quarter of 2025 in the capital of Warner Bros. Discovery, buying 1.5 million shares at an average price of $22.7. Einhorn began buying securities immediately after the company Paramount Skydance offered to fully buy this media holding for $23.5 per share - the investor assumed that for such a large asset will begin to fight and there will be other bidders. The prediction came true: Netflix offered $27.75 for part of the business (streaming and studios), which forced competitors to raise the bid for the entire company to $30. "We believe the most likely outcome would be a sale of Warner Bros. Discovery in the range of $30-plus to $35 per share," Einhorn wrote in a letter to partners.

In addition, the fund opened a position in consumer goods holding Spectrum Brands, buying 664,000 shares for $39.2 million. According to Einhorn's assessment, the asset, which combines brands like Black & Decker and Remington, is returning to revenue growth. Another purchase in the consumer sector was Deckers Outdoor - Einhorn is counting on the success of the HOKA running shoe brand. The fund bought 299,000 shares of the company for $31 million.

Another notable bet was medical supplies distributor Henry Schein (469,000 shares for $35.5 million). In this deal, Einhorn is betting on change: the investor expects that the emergence of activists on the board of directors will help the company cope with inefficiency and falling margins. In the fintech segment of Greenlight Capital's portfolio, a position in Global Payments (453,000 shares for $35 million) was added. Two players joined the gas block at once: the investor invested about $70 mln in Antero Resources (1 mln shares) and BKV Corp (1.3 mln shares). Both companies attracted the fund with low costs and stable production profile. In addition, a new line in the portfolio was taken by Slide Insurance Holdings: the fund bought 1.1 million shares.

Einhorn significantly strengthened the positions that were already in the portfolio. The fund was most active in buying shares in medical companies: positions in Sotera Health and Acadia Healthcare increased more than two and a half times. The share in Graphic Packaging Holding was significantly increased: the investor increased the stake in the paper packaging manufacturer to 8.4 million shares worth $127 million, which allowed the company to become one of the five largest investments of Greenlight Capital.

Einhorn completely liquidated his position in HP, closing the deal with a symbolic profit. The investor admitted that he had "over-sat" in the paper: the Windows upgrade cycle has come to an end, and computers with AI have not become a sales driver. In addition, Einhorn fears that the sharp rise in the price of memory will hit the profits of PC manufacturers.

Greenlight Capital also fully sold securities of media holding Nexstar Media Group, got rid of units of the Oilfield Services Sector ETF and exited oilfield services company Seadrill with a small loss.

In addition, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the fund cut its stake in oilfield services company Weatherford International by 23% and reduced its stake in pharmaceutical company Teva Pharmaceutical by 19%. In the consumer sector, the investor cut its investments in casino operator PENN Entertainment and retailer Victoria's Secret by 10%. Even in defensive instruments, Einhorn was cautious, reducing his stakes in the GDX Gold Mining Equity Fund by 15% and the GLD Gold ETF by 2.6%.

As of the end of 2025, Greenlight Capital's portfolio included 41 companies. Green Brick Partners, a real estate developer, remains the undisputed leader of the portfolio, accounting for almost 21% of all investments. The second and third places are occupied by engineering and construction company Fluor Corp (7.7%) and coal holding Core Natural Resources (6.5%). Rounding out the list of the fund's largest investments are insurance company Brighthouse Financial with a 6.35% share and packaging manufacturer Graphic Packaging Holding, with a share approaching 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

There are no "Magnificent Seven" companies among Greenlight Capital's longs right now. In the past 10 years, Einhorn has repeatedly talked about a bubble in tech stocks and has shorted Amazon and Netflix, among others.

Analyzing overall market conditions, the investor notes that Greenlight Capital remains concerned about market valuations, "We believe the U.S. equity market is now the most expensive it has been in the time we have been managing capital and perhaps in U.S. history."

Investor skepticism isn't just driven by the AI sector - Einhorn notes that he can almost physically feel the speculative behavior of retail players. "We still think it's not a good time to be heavily invested in equities. It's worth recognizing that we've held that view for the last couple of years, and yet the market has continued to rise."

At 2025, the fund's daily correlation to the market has gone negative to -0.11.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor