Apple will reach a record level of iPhone shipments this year thanks to the new 17th lineup and renewed demand in the company's key Chinese market, CNBC writes, citing a forecast by research company IDC. However, the outlook for 2026 looks less certain: the postponement of the release of the base model iPhone 18 may lead to a decline in shipments.
Details
Apple will ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, up 6% from 2024, IDC predicts. This is also more than the record level of 2021, when high sales were provided by the release of the iPhone 13 lineup.
This performance was largely driven by renewed demand in China, where there is "strong demand for the iPhone 17," the research firm notes. According to its data, in October and November 2025, Apple held the top spot in the Chinese market with a share of more than 20 percent, well ahead of its competitors.
"This has led to revised expectations for Apple's fourth quarter shipment growth in China: from 9% to 17% year-over-year. As a result, instead of the previously anticipated 1% decline in China, we are forecasting 3% growth. This is a phenomenal turnaround," Seeking Alpha quoted IDC senior research director Nabila Popal as saying.
She added that this year could be a record year for Apple not only in terms of shipments, but also in terms of revenue, which IDC estimates will increase by 7.2% to more than $261 billion. The term "shipments" is used by analysts to refer to the number of devices that a manufacturer sends to its distribution channels. Shipments do not equal sales, but reflect the demand the company expects for its products, CNBC explains.
What's going on with the company
The September launch of the iPhone 17 lineup was seen by investors as strategically important for Apple, as the company simultaneously faced doubts about its strategy following setbacks in AI development and growing competition in China. Local manufacturers such as Huawei were taking market share away from the US giant.
As of early September - before the latest smartphone models were released - Apple was the worst company in the "Magnificent Seven" after Tesla. But their success has pushed the stock up, now up 14% relative to the beginning of the year.
IDC's prediction follows a Counterpoint Research report last week that Apple will ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025 for the first time in 14 years.
What's next?
According to Bloomberg journalist Mark Gurman, who specializes in Apple products, the company next year will abandon the traditional annual fall presentation, and the schedule of smartphone releases will change. In the fall of 2026, Apple plans to release three top models - iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and a new foldable smartphone, and then, about six months later, in 2027, the company will present iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and possibly an updated iPhone Air, Gurman said.
IDC estimates that this could lead to a 4.2% drop in Apple shipments next year.
IDC also warns that the ongoing global shortage of memory chips will lead to supply constraints and the need to raise tech prices, but will hit Android devices in the low- and mid-price segments hardest, as their buyers are more sensitive to price increases, analysts said. "Next year will be a challenging year for the industry, but IDC still believes the market could see record Average Selling Price (ASP) values for smartphones," said research director for IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracke program
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
