Oninvest Index: Three Reasons Why Bitcoin Miners Are Growing Faster Than Cryptocurrencies

In the first half of the year, Bitcoin experienced one of its sharpest declines since October 2024—on June 5, the cryptocurrency’s price fell below $60,000. Deutsche Bank attributed the sell-off to a shift in expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate and a capital shift toward projects related to artificial intelligence and its infrastructure.

Despite this, shares of Bitcoin mining companies ended the first half of the year in positive territory. Analyst Aldiyar Anuarbekov highlighted the factors that could allow them to continue outperforming Bitcoin. However, for this to happen, the cryptocurrency’s price must remain high enough. According to JPMorgan’s estimates, the average cost of mining a single Bitcoin in June was about $78,000. However, miners’ costs vary: in the second quarter, Cango spent $73,313 per coin, while American Bitcoin spent about $36,500. A drop in Bitcoin’s price to $70,000 would make mining unprofitable for some companies, but operators with cheap electricity and efficient equipment would remain profitable.

Here are three reasons why Bitcoin miners' quotes might outpace the cryptocurrency:

Operators are shutting down outdated equipment, which benefits more efficient miners. By September 2, 2026, the network’s hash rate had fallen by approximately 28.5%—to 829 EH/s from a peak of 1,160 EH/s in October 2025. Since the network continues to distribute about 450 BTC per day, the previous computing power could theoretically have yielded about 40% more bitcoins. This is reflected in the hash price—the revenue per unit of computing power: according to H.C. Wainwright’s calculations, as of August 31, it was approximately 36% higher than in July, amounting to about $39.4 per PH/s per day. According to CoinShares, operators with cheap electricity and modern equipment stand to benefit the most from the phasing out of outdated mining capacity.

In August, Bitcoin rose 25% in price, and on September 3, it climbed above $81,000 thanks to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and easing concerns about a Fed rate hike. This bolstered hopes for a market recovery: Noel Acheson, author of *Crypto Is Macro Now*, believes that “crypto winter” is nearing its end. An additional sign of demand was the $1.9 billion inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during the week ending August 21, according to H.C. Wainwright (the report is available at Oninvest).

Forecasts vary widely: H.C. Wainwright expects Bitcoin to rise to $130,000 by the end of the year, Standard Chartered has lowered its year-end target to $100,000, while Barclays is factoring in around $64,000 in its model. For mining companies’ stocks, a rise in Bitcoin is particularly beneficial, as it increases their revenue and margins, but this relationship also works in the opposite direction. Therefore, the wide range of forecasts simultaneously highlights the sector’s potential and its main risk.

U.S. regulators are gradually establishing rules for the crypto market, which is reducing uncertainty for the entire industry. In August, the SEC proposed a special framework for the offering of certain crypto-asset-related investment contracts, while the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) stated that it is prepared to exercise its own authority if the passage of the CLARITY Act is delayed.

However, mining companies’ stocks have another source of growth that Bitcoin itself lacks: energy facilities can be repurposed as data centers for AI. The total value of deals announced in the sector exceeded $70 billion (for contract terms of 10–20 years). Companies that have already entered into long-term AI contracts are valued higher, whereas pure-play miners are more dependent on the price of Bitcoin.

The Oninvest Index, which tracks the stock prices of Bitcoin mining companies, includes 15 companies whose revenue depends primarily on mining. In the first half of 2026, the equally weighted version of the index rose by 14.6%, while the market-capitalization-weighted version rose by 48.4%. By comparison, over the same period, Bitcoin lost 33.1% of its value, the S&P 500 rose 10.1%, and the Russell 2000 rose 22.6%.

We selected three companies from the index that are of the greatest interest to investors:

Singapore-based BitFuFu combines its own mining operations with cloud mining: the company provides computing power to customers and maintains the equipment. In the second quarter, revenue fell 63% to $42.8 million, and the net loss was $20.5 million, compared with a profit of $47.1 million a year earlier.

However, operating metrics began to recover over the summer: in August, the hashrate rose by 45% month-over-month to 20.6 EH/s, while mining output increased by 55% to 174 BTC. At the same time, the company remains focused specifically on mining and is not yet expanding into the AI data center sector.

The main risk is dependence on partners: the company’s own capacity accounts for only 3.8 EH/s, while the remaining 16.8 EH/s comes from third-party suppliers and hosting customers. Analysts’ latest recommendations remain positive, but they have not been updated for some time: H.C. Wainwright values the stock at $4—nearly three times higher than the closing price on September 9. Roth Capital’s target price is $3. Both firms recommend buying BitFuFu shares.

Cango is a former Chinese auto-lending platform that pivoted in 2024–2025: it acquired mining equipment with a total hashrate of 50 EH/s and sold its previous business for approximately $352 million.

In the second quarter of 2026, revenue fell by half compared to the previous quarter, to $50.8 million, and the net loss totaled $81.6 million—primarily due to write-downs and disposals of equipment totaling approximately $51 million. At the same time, the adjusted EBITDA loss decreased from $154.1 million to $10.7 million.

The cost of production, excluding depreciation, fell by 5% to $73,313 per bitcoin, leaving a margin of less than 10% at a price of around $78,500. At the same time, Cango is beginning to reduce its reliance on cryptocurrency: on September 3, its subsidiary EcoHash launched its first commercial GPU services at a facility in Georgia, where up to 3 MW is allocated for artificial intelligence. In August, H.C. Wainwright placed Cango’s shares on “review”; prior to that, in March 2026, it had reaffirmed a “buy” rating with a price target of $3. This is nearly 55% higher than the company’s closing price on September 9.

Canada-based HIVE combines Bitcoin mining powered by renewable energy with cloud computing for AI through its BUZZ HPC division, which rents out GPU computing power. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, revenue rose 74% year-over-year to $79.1 million, while mining output increased nearly 2.5-fold to 1,004 BTC. The net loss of $142.9 million was primarily attributable to a non-cash provision related to a tax dispute in Sweden, while adjusted EBITDA remained positive at $13.4 million.

The main driver is the AI business: In August, BUZZ HPC signed a five-year contract worth $350 million, bringing its current and contracted annual revenue to $180 million, with a target of approximately $200 million by the end of 2026. The main risk is the high cost of expansion: fulfilling the new contract will require about $185 million in investment, with $208 million in cash on hand at the end of the quarter, although the client will provide a $35 million advance, and the company intends to cover part of the costs with debt financing.

In August, Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed its “outperform” rating on HIVE shares with a price target of $8, implying a 158% increase in value. H.C. Wainwright maintained its “Buy” rating with a target price of $7 (reports are available at Oninvest). The average target price from eight analysts is $7.13—more than double the stock’s closing price on September 9. HIVE shares have seven “Buy” ratings and one “Hold” rating.