SpaceX shares rose in value by 19% on the first day of trading. Is it worth buying them?

SpaceX shares rose in price by 19.22% on the first day of trading, starting at $150. At the peak, the price reached $176.5 and closed at $160.95.

The company held an IPO on June 11, offering 555.6 million shares at $135 and raising $75 billion. The offering was the largest in history, making founder Elon Musk the first trillionaire in history. What should retail investors do with the company's securities? Almas Myrzali, Chief Investment Officer of ATLAS Capital, answers.

In short, it's best to refrain from buying SpaceX stock right now.

Statistics vs. large IPOs: the larger the offering, the more likely it is to be maximally publicized and priced to the limit. SpaceX's IPO is the largest in history ($1.75-1.77 trillion valuation and $75 billion raised), so this rule is in full force here.

The organizers' task is to let holders sell their securities at the maximum on a horizon of about a year (a high starting valuation partially compensates for possible losses by the time the lockup period ends), and for banks to earn a commission. If the stock soared, it would mean that the bankers undervalued the company and did a poor job - at this scale, it's a direct reputational risk for them. Expecting a "cheap entry" is not worth waiting for.

It is difficult to forecast: there is no trading history, the paper will move with the market sentiment.

But statistically the chances are low: large IPOs historically fail in the first 1-2 years - even landmark ones like Meta. The company IPOed on May 18, 2012, and a year later its securities were worth about 30% less than the offering price. And even those IPOs that made tens of percent in the first weeks, most often then went below the offering price.

Market estimates of where SpaceX shares will end up in the future vary: Morningstar, for example, had a June 8 target of $63 per share, more than half the IPO price, while Oppenheimer has a target price of $190 for the next 12-18 months, New Street Research has a target price of $165, and CFRA has a target price of $115.

Now the risk and driver is the same - valuation and market sentiment.

By all multiples and historical measures, SpaceX's valuation is exorbitant, and for an IPO of this scale it is actually unprecedented. The company is priced to perfection.

And now the key question for SpaceX is whether its fundamentals will catch up with the current price. Financial data and dynamics will be available after the quarterly reports, tentatively from September 2026. But this does not mean that quotes are bound to fall immediately - it all depends on sentiment.

Moreover, it is worth considering the bullish factor: with low initial free-float and exposure to large indices, passive funds become forced buyers in the first weeks.

Given that the market has been falling for the past two weeks (Nasdaq has dropped more than 4% since the beginning of June, and in the first week of June it even collapsed) and the market's mood is rather negative, a failure in the first few days is unlikely. And if the market turns upward, SpaceX could grow despite any logical arguments about valuation.

Conclusion: if you are not a high-class trader, it's better to wait with the purchase, watch the price and financial indicators. I am sure it will be fascinating.

Does not constitute an investment recommendation

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor