The Legacy of Our Ancestors: Who Will Inherit the Greatest Fortune in Human History?

In 1937, the first billion-dollar fortune was passed down through inheritance. After the death of John Davison Rockefeller, the legendary founder of Standard Oil and the richest man on Earth, his assets passed to his son. And although the son was unable to increase his father’s fortune, his wealth continued to be held in family trusts and passed down from generation to generation.

Nearly 100 years later, the issue of global wealth inheritance is more relevant than ever. The American research firm Cerulli has dubbed this phenomenon the “Great Wealth Transfer.” This term describes the largest redistribution of private wealth in history—from baby boomers to younger generations—a process that will continue over the next two to three decades.

According to Cerulli’s estimates, approximately $84.4 trillion in accumulated wealth will be transferred from owners in the U.S. by 2045. Of this amount, $72.6 trillion will go to heirs, and approximately $11.9 trillion will go to charitable organizations. More than $53 trillion (about 63% of all transfers) will come from baby boomer households. Another $15.8 trillion will be transferred by the “silent” generation and its predecessors. Some more recent estimates, taking into account inflation and rising asset prices, raise the scale of the projected transfer to $120 trillion in the U.S. alone.

Millennials, who are currently between the ages of 30 and 45, will see their wealth increase fivefold by 2030, primarily due to inheritances. As part of the Great Wealth Transfer, more than $68 trillion could pass to them. Generation X, currently aged 46 to 61, will also receive a significant share. For them, Cerulli forecasts total inheritances of approximately $29.6 trillion over 25 years, with peak inflows of about $1.5 trillion per year by the mid-2030s. This means that the profile of global wealth will become significantly younger, but its concentration will remain high. In this scenario, the lion’s share of these funds will go to the children of wealthy parents.

The new generation will reap the benefits of postwar changes in the global economy: the United States’ abandonment of the gold standard, globalization, the development of the Internet, and the technological breakthroughs of recent decades. Global stock indices are not far from their all-time highs, which significantly affects the global valuation of the inherited wealth.

Investment banks and funds are paying close attention to these developments. They are primarily interested in how heirs will choose to manage the money left by their fathers and grandfathers, and how these assets will subsequently be redistributed. After all, younger investors are more risk-tolerant, while older generations prefer conservative investments.

To what extent are heirs prepared to manage the wealth that has fallen into their laps, and do they intend to continue developing their parents’ businesses? In its study, UBS notes that only 43% of entrepreneurs expect their children to carry on their business. More than half hope that their heirs will use the capital for the benefit of society. Two-thirds believe that their descendants will prefer to pursue their own projects. Founders of large companies are aware of the risks associated with transferring significant capital to children who, for various reasons, may not be able to manage it properly.

The movement is bringing about an important cultural shift: substantial wealth is beginning to be viewed not only as a family resource but also as a public one that requires responsible stewardship. In the long term, this could increase the share of capital flowing into foundations and nonprofits (nonprofit organizations—ed.) and partially reduce the amount of wealth that children inherit directly from their parents.

Corporate governance rules protect the stock market from risks associated with the transfer of a business through inheritance. Relatives of the company’s owner may receive shares, but not executive positions. A person seeking a senior position must be approved by the shareholders and have management experience. However, large public companies are not typically family-owned businesses, so the issue of transferring a business to an inexperienced CEO rarely arises.

Currently, the average age of companies with a valuation of more than $500 million that are planning an IPO is 11 years. Given that the boom in big-tech IPOs occurred in the 2010s, a tradition of generational succession in their leadership has not yet taken hold. So it’s possible that there will be more family-owned companies in the near future.

Nevertheless, experts at Cerulli are convinced that the “great redistribution of wealth” will have significant consequences for the global economy. First, inequality will worsen. The bulk of wealth will be concentrated in the hands of a minority. Second, governments, recognizing the scale of the assets being transferred, will decide to revise their taxes on property and capital gains to mitigate this imbalance and finance their aging populations. Younger generations with substantial capital may either increase pressure on businesses and governments or relocate their capital to countries with lower risks and more favorable tax systems.

Of course, part of the inheritance will be lost. Some beneficiaries who lack the necessary skills or self-discipline may quickly squander the fortune or make poor investment decisions. This has been observed time and again in wealthy dynasties of the past. Therefore, the issue of financial education and long-term capital management strategy becomes a critical element of the success of the Great Wealth Transfer.

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