U.S. Congressional Elections and Apple's Earnings Report: What Investors Can Expect This Week

The main macroeconomic events of the coming week will be the U.S. midterm congressional elections and the October labor market report from the world’s largest economy, according to The Wall Street Journal. The election results could influence policy in Washington, while the employment data will give investors new guidance regarding the Fed’s future decisions. According to LSEG, there is a 76% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s final meeting of the year on December 9.

In Europe, the key event will be the Bank of England meeting, at which a rate hike is expected, according to the WSJ.

This week, about 135 companies in the S&P 500 will report their quarterly results, according to Barron’s. Among them is Apple, which, at the close of trading on Friday, surpassed Nvidia in market capitalization to become the world’s most valuable company. Apple shares have been a relatively safe haven among tech companies this year; today, it is the only company with a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion.

On Monday, November 2, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the October Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Economists expect it to average 54.5 points—slightly higher than September’s reading, according to Barron’s.

Final data on the eurozone's manufacturing purchasing managers' index for October will be released.

Apple, Palantir Technologies, Estée Lauder, On Semiconductor, and Pershing Square will report their quarterly results.

On Tuesday, November 3, the U.S. will hold midterm elections for Congress. Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority in both chambers. According to polls cited by Barron’s, Democrats have a good chance of gaining control of the House of Representatives, while the outcome of the race for the Senate remains less certain.

"The shift of both chambers of Congress to Democratic control… could be seen as a moderately negative factor for the dollar for several reasons—ranging from an increased risk of a government shutdown and a deadlock in negotiations over the debt ceiling to a possible deterioration in the already fragile sentiment toward AI,” said ING currency strategist Francesco Pesole, as quoted by the WSJ.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for September. Economists forecast 7.1 million job openings at the end of the month—roughly the same as in August, according to Barron’s. Analysts will also be examining statistics on layoffs and voluntary resignations, Bloomberg notes.

AMD, Block, Ferrari, Hugo Boss, Keurig Dr Pepper, Lufthansa, Marathon Petroleum, Pfizer, Super Micro Computer, and Yum! Brands will report their financial results.

On Wednesday, November 4, the Institute for Supply Management will release the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October. Economists expect an average reading of 54.9 points—the same as in September.

The eurozone will release its preliminary inflation estimate for October. Economists at Investec expect it to accelerate to 3.9% year-over-year and reach 4% by the end of the year. Analysts at the German bank LBBW predict it will hit the 4% mark as early as October, according to the WSJ.

Investec economist Ryan Jayasaputra believes that inflation data will serve as an important guide for the European Central Bank. At its October meeting, the ECB kept rates unchanged, but its president, Christine Lagarde, said the central bank had discussed the possibility of tightening policy. According to LSEG, the market estimates the probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike in December at 63%.

S&P Global will release the final data on the Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers' Index for October.

McDonald’s, Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, AppLovin, Arm Holdings, BMW, Kraft Heinz, and Uber will release their quarterly earnings reports.

On Thursday, November 5, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the interest rate. Most market participants expect a 25-basis-point increase, bringing the rate to 4%. “The need for this move was already evident at the last meeting,” the WSJ quotes Allan Monks, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase, as saying.

Eurostat will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the eurozone for September.

Weekly data on initial claims for unemployment benefits will be released in the U.S. According to the consensus forecast cited by Bloomberg, the number is expected to remain near multi-year lows.

Among the companies reporting are Airbnb, A.P. Moller–Maersk, Cloudflare, ConocoPhillips, Nintendo, Sony, and Rheinmetall.

On Friday, November 6, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its October labor market report. According to the consensus estimate cited by Barron’s, the number of nonfarm jobs in the country increased by 62,000—twice as many as in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.

At its most recent meeting, the U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged. According to LSEG, the market is fully pricing in at least two rate hikes over the next 12 months. However, particularly weak employment data could cause investors to revise those expectations, the WSJ reports.

The University of Michigan will release the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) for the U.S. for November.

Retail sales data for September will be released in the eurozone.

Humana and Moderna will report their quarterly results.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor