The UAE left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1. Will this decision provoke the exodus of other countries from the organizations and who will fight for their preservation? Alexey Golubovich, analyst at Arbat Capital Advisory Services Limited (UK), analyzed the consequences of this decision for the association of oil exporting countries and the oil market.

What will happen to OPEC and oil prices after the UAE leaves the association

On May 1, the UAE will leave OPEC, the association of oil-exporting countries, after almost 60 years of cooperation. The Emirates joined the organization in 1967. Before the Iran war, the UAE was OPEC's third-largest producer, accounting for about 12% of the group's total output. The country will also leave OPEC+, an association that also includes a number of major oil producers including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Sergey Pigarev, senior analyst at Freedom Finance Global, wrote for Oninvest about what this decision means for the oil market.

The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ as of Ma 1. Who will be the winners and who will be the losers

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC and OPEC+), Reuters <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/">writes,</a> pointing out that such a move would be a serious blow to the group and its de facto leader - Saudi Arabia - amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. As of February 2026, the UAE was OPEC's third-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/uae-opec-oil-iran.html">specifies</a>.

Arab Emirates withdraws from OPEC and OPEC+

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef

Sources say drone strike on mainline pumping station

A key pipeline for Saudi Arabia's oil exports has come under attack

The U.S. leader has told aides he intends to curtail the military campaign against Iran even if it does not fully unblock the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ has learned

Oil prices squandered gains on news of Trump's willingness to make peace with Iran

Saudi Arabian Oil Company

On March 19, futures for the benchmark Mark Brent crude oil <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@LCO.1">rose by</a> more than 10%, exceeding the $119 per barrel mark in the course of trading. Then the growth slowed down a bit, at the time of publication of this text Brent was trading above $116 per barrel.

Oil price jumps 10% after Saudi Aramco refinery and Qatar LNG plant hit

Saudi Arabia was able to restore more than half of its oil exports by redirecting some supplies from the blocked Persian Gulf to the west - to the Red Sea coast. At the same time, the country quickly formed a fleet of tankers headed there to load oil. Now the ships are piling up at the port, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-18/saudi-arabia-has-revived-half-its-oil-exports-via-hormuz-bypass">reports</a>.

Saudi Arabia restored half of its oil exports bypassing the Strait of Hormuz

Saudi Arabia, the world's <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/aaaad78b-2980-4bb3-90f8-e8d7ab617796">largest</a> oil producer in the Persian Gulf and the <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-production-by-country/">second</a> <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/aaaad78b-2980-4bb3-90f8-e8d7ab617796">largest</a> after the United States, has started to cut production, a source familiar with the situation <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-08/iran-latest-mmia2vxb?srnd=homepage-europe">told</a> Bloomberg. According to him, Saudi Arabia took such a decision due to the actual blockage of the Strait of Hormuz - a narrow water passage off the coast of Iran, through which passes a fifth of all maritime oil transportation. Restriction of shipping through this route has led to the filling of oil storage tanks in the country, Bloomberg writes.

The Gulf's largest oil producer has begun cutting production

Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's largest oil company, said that one of its refineries was hit, resulting in a small fire at the facility that was contained, CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/us-iran-live-updates-trump-oil-gold.html">writes</a>.

A fire broke out at a Saudi Aramco plant after an Iranian attack. Work has been suspended

In Serbia, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/12/jared-kushner-protest-belgrade-building-serbia">protests</a> against a $500 million project of the US president's son-in-law Jared Kushner. In the Middle East, a peace plan in which he may play a key role. Between these stories is the same business model: the private company of the president's son-in-law attracted $4.8 billion from sovereign funds of those states that are directly involved in the foreign policy of the United States. Oninvest continues the series of materials about how members of the family of the American leader make money on the famous family name. This article is about why Donald Trump's foreign policy has become a gold mine for the husband of his eldest daughter.

Trump Family Inc.: How the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner makes money on foreign policy

ACWA Power Company

Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil producers, and China is its largest consumer and the Saudis' main customer. But in the energy sector, the two countries have found another area of cooperation. China is a world leader in the development of renewable energy. And now Saudi Arabia, using its technology, has engaged in the rapid development of solar generation.