Analysts said there was a risk of a "real panic" in the oil market in June

The global oil market could face panic buying and a new price spike as early as early June if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, HFI Research has warned. Earlier, its analysts warned that the depletion of oil reserves could push quotations above $150 per barrel.

The oil market is approaching a tipping point amid continuing supply disruptions through the Middle East, analysts at HFI Research, a company specializing in energy markets, have warned. According to their assessment, the first week of June may become a turning point for the market.

"If the Strait of Hormuz is still closed by the first week of June, we're going to see a real panic," Business Insider quoted the company's May 18 review as saying.

Separately, analysts noted that this forecast is not a base case. HFI did not give a specific forecast on prices, but earlier the company's analysts allowed the growth of oil prices above $150 per barrel, recalls Business Insider.

Many market participants underestimate the scale of risk and continue to expect the situation to normalize soon, says HFI Research. According to analysts, such forecasts are based more on "psychological biases" than on the fundamental balance of supply and demand. Brent crude oil has held above $100 a barrel for most of the last month as investors assess the implications of supply restrictions across the Strait of Hormuz, writes Business Insider. The market has so far been kept from a sharper jump by utilizing strategic and commercial oil reserves of the U.S. and other countries, HFI analysts note.

By Ma. 8, U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories had fallen to 1.6 billion barrels, 67 million barrels less than in early Ma, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Back in late April, HFI predicted that the U.S. could exhaust excess oil reserves within eight weeks - by the end of June. The company then said that the market had already reached a "tipping point" at which oil shortages could trigger a wave of panic buying and accumulation of raw materials, Business Insider recalls.

Brent crude oil cheapened by 1% to $111 per barrel in today's trading, while the price of the U.S. grade WTI fell slightly by 0.05% to $108.6 per barrel.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor