Gold, Bitcoin, the EU: Wall Street Names the "Winners" Amid Easing Tensions with Iran

Gold, Bitcoin, European stocks, and REITs—Bank of America (BofA) analysts have identified the assets investors should buy amid the de-escalation in the Middle East, according to MarketWatch. In addition, Morgan Stanley strategists believe that the rally in the U.S. stock market following the agreement between the U.S. and Iran could gain momentum—with an additional boost coming from capital rotation into cyclical, economically sensitive sectors that had lagged behind during the conflict in the Middle East, reports Bloomberg.

Last Sunday, June 14, the United States and Iran announced that they had reached a provisional agreement, which is expected to be officially signed on June 19 in Switzerland. Prior to that, on Friday, June 12, BofA strategists presented a series of investment “contrarian ideas”—defensive and undervalued positions that could yield maximum returns should the conflict end. Among them:

— Real estate investment trusts (REITs). Analysts noted that they had already hit new highs on June 12. The most representative fund in this asset class is the Vanguard Real Estate ETF, which has already gained 9% since the start of the year, according to Bank of America.

— Consumer discretionary stocks, tracked by the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), have also risen by more than 10% since mid-April, when they hit lows amid the war.

— Given the scale of the decline in debt levels seen in Bitcoin and gold, both of these assets are ripe for a trend reversal, analysts noted. Since the beginning of 2026, the cryptocurrency has fallen by 27%, while gold has dropped by 2%. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar in recent months has served as an additional factor putting pressure on these assets, notes MarketWatch.

According to analysts at BofA, led by Chief Strategist Michael Hartnett, against the backdrop of U.S. consumer price inflation exceeding 4%, U.S. President Donald Trump needs to push for a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, as the surge in asset prices is the optimal path for implementing his “America First” (America First). The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that U.S. oil reserves are currently at a 45-year low, analysts explain.

— Pressure on the stock market from interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar exchange rate is beginning to ease, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is on the rise, noted a team of Morgan Stanley analysts led by Michael Wilson on June 15. Their views were reported by Bloomberg. Such dynamics could help cheaper U.S. stocks take the lead in the market, which until now has been heavily concentrated in growth tech stocks, the strategists noted.

Wilson reiterated his bullish stance on undervalued cyclical sectors, such as consumer discretionary, transportation, and regional banks. He noted that market sentiment and positioning toward these sectors remain “bearish and subdued.”

The S&P 500 is just about 2% away from its all-time high amid hopes for a long-term agreement between the U.S. and Iran, Bloomberg notes. Strategists are generally betting on new momentum for a rally in global stock markets, including in Europe, where cyclical sectors are widely represented, the agency reports. “Although we may see some volatility in the coming weeks, our confidence in the current bull market remains unchanged,” Wilson said.

— Rotation into cyclical sectors “will remain a winning strategy” through the end of the year, provided that geopolitical tensions ease and corporate earnings and inflation remain stable, agrees Mislav Matejka, global equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, who shares this positive outlook on the sector. His opinion is cited by Bloomberg.

— Meanwhile, Maximilian Ulir, head of European equity strategy at Deutsche Bank, has closed an investment strategy that prioritized U.S. stocks over European ones, the agency reports. He explained his decision by citing the risk that the key drivers of the U.S. market’s outperformance—including the technology sector’s leadership and higher earnings growth rates—could begin to weaken.

— S&P 500 futures rose 1.3% on June 15 following statements from the U.S. and Iran that they had reached a temporary agreement, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2.2%. Dow Jones futures are up 0.9%.

— The pan-European Stoxx 600 index is up 0.7%.

— Gold rose 2.77% to $4,336.

— Bitcoin has risen 0.8% and is trading at $66,277

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor