Morning in New York: hope for a quick peace encouraged the "bulls"

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The upcoming session will be held against the backdrop of a sharp improvement in the foreign policy news background. The US and Iran announced a framework agreement, which provides for cessation of hostilities. The most important points of the agreement for the market are the lifting of the naval blockade and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as this reduces the risk of disruptions in energy supplies. The official signing of the memorandum is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Before that, the parties should agree on the procedure for the fulfillment of the conditions.

According to the Iranian version of the draft memorandum, it should include a temporary easing of the ban on oil supplies from the Islamic republic and opening access to its frozen assets. For its part, the U.S. links these steps to the fulfillment of the terms of the agreement and progress in negotiations. A broader package of issues, including the nuclear program, sanctions and the mechanism for dealing with assets, is scheduled to be discussed within 60 days after the signing of the memorandum. A separate source of risk remains the position of Israel, which is not a party to the U.S.-Iran negotiations and intends to maintain its freedom of action in Lebanon against Hezbollah.

In today's macroeconomic calendar, the most important releases will be the New York Manufacturing Activity Index for June (consensus: 12.5 points, Ma: 19.6), May Industrial Production (consensus: +0.2% mom, April: +0.7%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus: 76.2%, April: 76.1%). However, the impact of these releases on the market dynamics will be technical, as the data will only help to refine earlier estimates. The foreign policy agenda is likely to remain the main driver.

Futures on American stock indices are demonstrating strong growth. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as positive with increased volatility. Buyers are supported by the decline in oil prices, expectations of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and cessation of hostilities in the Middle East. Against this background, it is possible that the main benchmarks may update their historical highs.

- Paramount Skydance (PSKY) has received approval from the U.S. Department of Justice to buy Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). The decision reduces federal regulatory risks, but the deal remains in doubt as California, New York and other states plan to block it through the courts.

- Anthropic faces heightened regulatory risks after disabling access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models at the behest of U.S. authorities. The government seeks to prevent foreign companies from obtaining data from advanced AI models and using them to circumvent export controls. However, according to media reports, similar restrictions are unlikely to affect other AI companies.

- Lockheed Martin (LMT) has been awarded two U.S. Navy contracts totaling approximately $2.8 billion. The $2.29 billion agreement provides extensive maintenance support for the F-35. Sikorsky, a part of the corporation, will perform engineering, integration and flight testing of the CH-53K heavy-lift helicopter under a $525 million contract. The news supports the revenue predictability of the company's defense portfolio.

-Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) presented strong data from a Phase III study of the combination of TALVEY and DARZALEX FASPRO with or without pomalidomide in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. The combination showed a 72% reduction in the risk of further disease progression and mortality relative to standard therapy, and 24-month disease progression-free survival reached 81.3% versus 51.2% in the control group.

- Eli Lilly (LLY) has released successful results of an experimental anti-myelofibrosis drug trial following JAK2-drug therapy. In 70% of patients, spleen volume was reduced by at least 35% and symptoms improved by approximately 50%. Jaypirca reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 45% in patients with previously treated CLL/SLL. The data support the expansion of the company's oncology portfolio.

Trading on June 12 on the U.S. stock exchanges ended in the plus, although the indices have moved away from intraday highs. S&P 500 grew by 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.64%, Dow Jones added 0.70%, Russell 2000 - 0.79%.

Buyers were supported by expectations of de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. White House officials said there was a high probability of signing an agreement with Iran that would involve unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran noted that the draft memorandum is closer to agreement, although they warned that it will not be possible to immediately resume navigation through the strait. Against this background, WTI crude oil quotes to close the session fell by 3.2%, to the minimum since April 17.

The top gainers were commodity producers (XLB: +1.87%), financials (XLF: +1.37%) and utilities (XLU: +1.09%). Telecoms (XLC: -0.42%) and health care companies (XLV: -0.18%) were down. Software developers, medical equipment manufacturers, aerospace and defense companies looked worse than the market.

In the "Magnificent Seven" the dynamics was mixed. Apple (AAPL: -1.52%) and Amazon (AMZN: -1.23%) showed the most pronounced correction.

Demand for protective assets was heterogeneous. Yields of trejeris grew by 3-4 bp after a noticeable decline the day before. The dollar index fell by 0.1%. Gold rose by 3%, silver - by 6.2%.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May rose to 48.9 points with a consensus of 46. Estimates of current and future conditions improved, inflation expectations on a one-year and five- to ten-year horizon declined to 4.6% and 3.4%, respectively.

- Trading in shares of SpaceX (SPCX: +19.2%), which started at $150 at an IPO price of $135, became the main event of Friday trading. By their end, the capitalization of the issuer rose above $2 trillion, and the owner of the corporation Elon Musk, based on the estimated value of his share, became the first trillionaire in history.

-Roku (ROKU: +20.1%) is exploring strategic options, including a full sale of the business, and has already held talks with at least one U.S. media company. The interest in the asset is due to Roku's large-scale audience and its advertising platform, which could be valuable to media groups and technology companies.

- MBXBiosciences (MBX: -4.7%) published annual results of a study of canvuparatide, a potential PTH replacement therapy for chronic hypoparathyroidism. The drug demonstrated a sustained effect with weekly administration. On optimistic expectations of these data, MBX shares have risen by about 30% since the beginning of last week.

-UniFirst (UNF: -3.9%) received an additional request from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) for a deal with Cintas (CTAS: -3.08%), which typically means a more detailed regulatory review and delayed closing.

- RH (RH: -3.9%) reported a first-quarter loss below average market expectations on revenue above estimates. However, investors focused on conservative revenue growth guidance for the current quarter. Exchange players were also concerned about weak sales dynamics, dependence on the results of the RH Estates segment, cooling housing market and international expansion costs. However, average revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 came in above consensus, which mitigated the negative reaction.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor