Morning in New York: investors await court ruling on duties

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Today, the U.S. Supreme Court could announce a decision on the legality of most of the import duties imposed by President Donald Trump. According to Polymarket and Kalshi, the probability that the court will side with the White House is about 30%. Our baseline scenario assumes a relatively calm reaction of stock quotes even in case of an outcome not in favor of the administration. The greatest volatility can be expected in the segment of small capitalization companies. However, the court may, like on January 9, postpone the decision on this case.

This Wednesday will see the release of retail sales statistics for December, which, like the CPI published the day before, could increase market volatility. Freedom Broker forecasts a 0.43% and 0.31% m/m increase in the overall and core reading, with the consensus at +0.4% m/m in both cases. The release should confirm the resilience of consumer demand.

Producer Price Index data for November (consensus: +0.3% mom) and core PPI (consensus: +0.2% mom) will also be released, which will help to clarify the dynamics of inflationary pressures at the cost level. In addition, the secondary market home sales statistics for December (consensus: +2.4% mom, November: +0.5%) will be released.

During the day, we expect comments from Stephen Miran, member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Anna Paulson, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Rafael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and John Williams, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In our view, the inflation data are unlikely to change the regulator's rhetoric ahead of the January meeting. The Fed has already given a clear signal of a pause after the recent series of rate cuts, and the market is laying almost zero probability of policy adjustment.

Spot silver prices exceeded the $90 per ounce mark for the first time. Gold also reached a new record. Demand for protective assets is increasing due to geopolitical uncertainty.

Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), Citigroup (C) and Infosys ADR (INFY) will present quarterly results before the opening of the main session.

Futures on American stock indices demonstrate about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as neutral with increased volatility. We focus on the S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6910-7020 points (from -0.8% to +0.8% of the previous session's closing level).

- Shares of TG Therapeutics (TGTX) are up 7% on the premarket following the release of preliminary revenue data and 2026 guidance. BRIUMVI sales for 2025 are estimated to be around $616 million, with 2026 forecast to increase to $875-900 million, broadly in line with market expectations. Management confirmed the strong commercial momentum of the drug and outlined key clinical milestones for 2026.

- Sprout Social (SPT) stock reacted positively to the disclosure of CEO Ryan Paul Barretto's purchase of 93,984 shares of the company for about $1 million. After the deal, his stake rose to 995,031 securities, which the market saw as a signal of management confidence.

- Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) announced plans to offer $50 million of common stock in a public offering. The company intends to use the funds raised for general corporate purposes, including financing initial equipment commitments for planned gas-fired generating facilities.

January 13 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended in the negative. S&P 500 fell by 0.19%, Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.18%, Dow Jones lost 0.8%, Russell 2000 - 0.1%.

Representatives of the "Magnificent Seven" showed mixed dynamics. Alphabet (GOOGL: +1.24%) was in the greatest demand from buyers, Amazon (AMZN: -1.57%) was under pressure. Sectors of the broad market closed multidirectional. Energy (XLE: +1.42%) was the leader of the growth on the background of a 2.8% jump in WTI quotations. The financial industry (XLF: -1.92%) was among the outsiders after the publication of disappointing quarterly results of JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

The key macro event was the inflation report for December. The overall CPI rose 0.3% mom, matching expectations, the core CPI added 0.2% mom, which was 0.1 percentage point less than consensus. Increases were recorded in the housing, air transportation and health care categories, while used car prices declined. Overall, the release confirmed the trend of slowing inflation despite the trend distortions associated with the shutdown.

Donald Trump's statements in support of political protests in Iran had a negative impact on investor sentiment. Against this background, crypto-assets went up, and bitcoin rose to $95,000 - the highest since mid-November.

-Cardinal Health (CAH: +2.8%) raised its FY 2026 guidance and forecasts adjusted EPS of at least $10 on revenues of $50 billion in the Specialty segment. These guidance is driven by robust demand and accelerated growth in the BioPharma Solutions division.

- Profit and net interest income of JPMorgan Chase (JPM: -4.2%) for the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. At the same time, investors were disappointed by the level of commissions of the investment bank and limited volume of buyback. Additional pressure on quotations is exerted by the risks of government regulation of credit card fees.- After Donald Trump's statements in support of the initiative to limit the fees for acquiring services (interchange fee), investors have increased concerns about the margins of Visa (V: -4.5%).

- Netflix (NFLX) is discussing renegotiating the terms of a potential deal, including the option of an all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD: +1.7%).

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor