Morning in New York: investors favor caution

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Capital Markets Research, Freedom Broker.

The key macro release of the day will be the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Ma. The consensus assumes growth of the overall indicator by 0.5% m/m, and the core indicator - by 0.3% m/m after 0.6% and 0.4% respectively a month earlier. Before the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed is observing the silence mode, so it will not comment on the data. If the actual CPI numbers are higher than expected this will push Treasury yields up and increase the valuation pressure on "expensive" securities.

The situation in the Middle East also remains in focus. The previous day, U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense facilities, ground control stations and radars in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a commensurate response to the Apache helicopter shot down the previous day. Tehran responded with a series of attacks on targets in the Persian Gulf area. Jordan reported intercepting five missiles, while Bahrain and Kuwait also engaged air defense systems. The clash effectively undermines the ceasefire in place since April. Against this backdrop, uncertainty is growing over the timing of the signing of the interim agreement with Iran announced by the US President. Oil quotations reacted to the latest news in a less pronounced manner than earlier, with WTI trading near $88 and Brent at around $92 per barrel. Additional support for the prices of liquid hydrocarbons is provided by the eighth consecutive week of reduction of their reserves in the United States.

Among corporate events, the preparation of SpaceX for IPO is of great interest to market participants. Recall, the company plans to raise $75 billion ($135 per paper) at a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. This offering will be the largest in history. Demand, according to media reports, exceeded supply by about four times, exceeding $250 billion. The order book closes today at 4:00 p.m. New York time. SpaceX has reportedly allocated up to 30% of the offering to retail investors. This indicates continued strong demand for large deals, but an offering of this magnitude could pull some liquidity from other segments of the market and increase volatility.

Chewy (CHWY) will release its quarterly results before the open, and Oracle (ORCL) and Stitch Fix (SFIX) will report after the end of the main session. Oracle's release will be particularly important for investors as an indicator of demand for cloud infrastructure and AI-related projects.

Futures on US stock indices are declining, reflecting investors' caution. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as negative with increased volatility, which is due to the deterioration of the foreign policy background, the risk of accelerating inflation and the outflow of liquidity into large placements. Our benchmark for the S&P 500 for the upcoming trading is the range of 7300-7430 points.

- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is losing 11% on news that it plans to raise up to $7 billion through a series of share offerings. The funds raised will be used to purchase components for $39 billion in AI server orders from more than 20 customers in recent weeks.

- Anthropic has opened wide access to the Claude Fable 5 model. This is the first public model of the Mythos class, introduced in April, which was previously only available to a narrow range of partners due to cybersecurity risks.

- Shares of Casey's General Stores (CASY) are reacting with a rise of more than 1% on the release of a strong report. The company's earnings per share came in at $4.37 with a consensus of $3.36, while revenue rose 14.5% YoY to $4.57 billion.

- Quotes of Cracker Barrel (CBRL) add almost 8%. The chain reported earnings per share of $0.29 instead of the expected loss, its revenue also exceeded the forecast. Management raised its full-year guidance for the latter metric and markedly improved its Adjusted EBITDA guidance.

- Hinge Health (HNGE) shares are up about 2% after raising guidance for the year. The new guidance calls for revenue growth in the range of 40%, to $818-824 million, and an operating profit margin of about 27%.

- Shares of Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) are down more than 6% after announcing its $500 million additional issue with an option for underwriters for another $75 million. The company will use the raised funds for the development of its key drug ivonescimab and general corporate needs. Investors reacted negatively to the risk of share dilution.

On June 9, trading on American stock exchanges ended mixed, although by the close part of the intraday decline was recovered. S&P 500 lost 0.26%, NASDAQ 100 fell by 1.12%, while Dow Jones added 0.17%, and Russell 2000 grew by 0.41%. Dynamics of quotations was determined by capital rotation, which was indicated by outperformance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 "classical" benchmark by more than 100 bp.

The IT sector (XLK: -1.85%) and the energy sector (XLE: -1.61%) ended the day in a significant downward trend. The correction in the high-tech industry was caused by the dynamics of chipmakers' shares. There was no obvious reason for a sell-off, but market participants note the overbought segment after a long rally, because only for the last three months the SOX industry index has added over 50%. Energy quotations were pressured by the decline in oil prices.

Participants of trades were shifting to the segments that had lagged behind earlier, along with some protective and cyclical securities. The real estate industry (XLRE: +2.13%) became the leader of growth, which was supported by the decrease in yields of treasuries.

The shares of the Magnificent Seven fluctuated from around zero to a noticeable decline. Apple (AAPL: -3.6% at the close of trading on June 9) and Tesla (TSLA: -3%) fell the most.

New private-sector job openings averaged 29,000 in the four weeks through Ma. 23, marking the third consecutive slowdown in hiring, according to ADP data. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May slipped to 95.3 points from April's 95.9. The number of new jobs and hiring volume plans hit a six-year low. Meanwhile, the trade deficit for April narrowed from March's $56.6 billion to $55.9 billion thanks to oil exports. Secondary home sales in Ma rose 3.2% m/m to an annualized rate of 4.17 million, the highest since December, with a consensus of 4.07 million. This result was achieved despite low housing affordability due to high mortgage rates, indicating the sustainability of pent-up demand.

The Middle East agenda continued to determine the external news background. U.S. President Donald Trump blamed Iran for the Apache helicopter crash and stated the need for retaliation. According to The New York Times, Tehran and Washington only outlined the "fuzzy contours" of an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. The market's baseline forecast still assumes a diplomatic settlement of the conflict, but its parameters and timing remain uncertain. Israel's actions in Lebanon are an additional source of risk.

Treasuries strengthened across the curve, their yields declined by about 4 bps, recovering part of the growth of the previous two sessions. The auction on placement of three-year treasuries in the amount of $58 bln was held with a yield premium of 0.3 bp.

Gold fell in price by 1.8%, silver by 4.9% and WTI crude oil corrected down by 3.4%. Bitcoin futures fell 2.2% and the dollar index declined 0.1%.

- The sell-off in Apple shares (AAPL: -3.6% at the close of trading on June 9) after disappointing investors with announcements at WWDC continued. Analysts recognized that the long-awaited transition to its own AI platform removed some of the "overhang" that was pressing on the quotes. At the same time, the monetization model, dependence on Gemini, and Apple's role as a passive gateway to third-party language models continue to raise questions.

- Russia's Mincifra and Roskomnazdor propose to lift restrictions on access to the Roblox (RBLX: +1.65%) platform, blocked in December 2025.

- Nuvalent (NUVL: +39.28%) will be taken over by British pharma giant GSK by the end of the third quarter. The deal, valued at about $10.6 billion, will be paid in cash. Nuvalent shares are thus valued at $124, which implies a premium of about 40.1% to the closing price on June 8.

- DraftKings (DKNG: +11.34%) reacted positively to Ma data, recording a 24% m/m increase in Predictions retail bets on a 34% m/m increase in trading volume.

- J. M. Smucker (SJM: +10.44%) reported fiscal Q4 revenue in line with expectations but beat consensus on earnings. Management noted strong momentum in its coffee and Away From Home segments, as well as accelerating Uncrustables sales growth relative to the prior-year quarter. The midpoint of EPS guidance for FY 2027 was above consensus, although the revenue growth guidance disappointed.

- Applied Digital (APLD: +2.36%) announced a new long-term lease agreement on the Delta Forge 2 site with the US hyperscaler. The agreement assumes approximately $5.2 billion in revenue over the base term and up to $12.7 billion including all renewal options over a 30-year horizon.

- SailPoint (SAIL: -11.48%) generated earnings and operating income above average expectations in the first quarter, but its revenue underperformed the consensus. The midpoints of its FY 2027 EPS and revenue guidance were in line with market benchmarks. Haydens for operating income was above average forecasts. However, market expectations were inflated before the report, and analysts were cautious about slowing ARR growth.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor