Morning in New York: Nike's Earnings Report and Negotiations Over the Strait of Hormuz Take Center Stage

A daily review and forecast of events in the U.S. stock market by Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Participants in the upcoming session will focus on reports regarding the previously announced U.S.-Iranian consultations in Doha on the terms of interim agreements to resolve the conflict and establish a shipping regime in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington has reported that it has sent a negotiating team to Qatar, but Tehran states that it does not plan to meet with them. If the consultations do take place, their key topics are expected to be the coordination of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, transit conditions, and communication protocols to prevent further incidents. Agreeing on and adhering to these rules will reduce the risk of disruptions in oil supplies and help lower inflation expectations. At the same time, Tehran’s hardline stance on controlling shipping raises the possibility of a renewed blockade of the strait, which would provide a new driver of growth for oil prices.

Today’s key macroeconomic releases include the June Chicago Manufacturing Activity Index (consensus: 55.1 points, May: 62.7) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (consensus: 94.4 points, May: 93.1), as well as May JOLTS job openings data (consensus: 7.296 million, April: 7.618 million). These releases are important for assessing the resilience of consumer demand, business activity, and employment ahead of the release of the Department of Labor’s June report.

After the market closes today, Nike (NKE) and Constellation Brands (STZ) will report their quarterly earnings.

Futures on U.S. stock indices are trading near zero. We assess the risk balance for the upcoming session as neutral, with average volatility amid uncertainty surrounding the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

— Abivax (ABVX) shares are up more than 32% following the release of results from the second part of the ABTECT confirmatory study of obefazimod for ulcerative colitis. The company reported a clinically significant effect in a challenging patient population that had previously shown a poor response to treatment, as well as additional data supporting the drug’s safety.

— AeroVironment (AVAV) shares are up more than 20% following the release of strong quarterly results and guidance for fiscal year 2027. Comparable revenue for the reporting period increased by approximately 30%, and adjusted earnings per share exceeded average market expectations. Investors reacted positively to the expansion of the order backlog, as well as strong demand for unmanned systems, counter-drone solutions, and defense technologies.

— Cogent Communications (CCOI) shares are rising more than 6% in response to news that the company has completed the sale of 10 data centers in a deal valued at $225 million in cash.

— Vishay Intertechnology (VSH) shares are down about 6% following the announcement of a planned $750 million rights offering of common stock. The company intends to use the proceeds for business development and general corporate purposes, including reducing its debt burden.

— Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) shares are down more than 5% following the announcement of a placement of 35 million common shares, approximately 23.3 million of which will be sold by current shareholders. The pressure on the stock price is due to an increase in the number of shares in free float and the risk of short-term oversupply.

— Digital Realty Trust (DLR) shares are down about 2% following the announcement that it will acquire Blackstone’s (BX) stakes in three data centers in Northern Virginia. These assets are valued at $7.8 billion. Digital Realty will pay Blackstone approximately $3.5 billion in cash and stock. Despite this strategic expansion in a key region for data centers, investors are cautiously assessing the scale of the deal and its impact on the buyer’s balance sheet.

Trading on June 29 on U.S. stock exchanges ended mostly higher, with the major benchmarks closing near their intraday highs. The S&P 500 gained 1.18%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.25%, the Dow Jones rose 0.59%, and the Russell 2000 rose a symbolic 0.01%. The broad-market index rebounded after five consecutive sessions of correction; however, the number of declining stocks in the index exceeded the number of advancing ones, indicating that the recovery was fairly narrow in scope.

The “bullish” sentiment was bolstered by the largest technology companies. Among the “Magnificent Seven,” Alphabet (GOOGL: +4.82%), Amazon (AMZN: +3.2%), and Tesla (TSLA: +8.46%) outperformed the market, although there were no obvious catalysts for such strong gains. This was likely due to a rebound from the decline seen since the beginning of the month.

The top performers were cyclical consumer goods stocks (XLY: +2.4%), the IT sector (XLK: +2.37%), and telecommunications (XLC: +1.6%). This momentum was driven by buying in Tesla and Amazon shares, a rebound in chipmakers’ and software developers’ stock prices, and corporate news. The underperformers included materials (XLB: -1.82%), real estate (XLRE: -0.71%), and energy (XLE: -0.48%).

In the bond market, the trend was mixed, with yields on short-term Treasury bonds rising by 1–2 basis points and the yield curve flattening. WTI crude oil rose 2.2%, rising above the psychologically important $70-per-barrel mark, although foreign policy news took a back seat following the agreement between the U.S. and Iran to cease mutual attacks and amid expectations of a new round of technical talks.

Macroeconomic data did not serve as a significant driver for the session. The Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Activity Index came in slightly below consensus, but new orders remained stable and employment continued to rise.

— QuidelOrtho (QDEL: +32.2%) is considering the sale of its point-of-care rapid diagnostics division, expecting the asset to be valued at approximately $1.5 billion.

— Rocket Lab (RKLB: +15.9%) plans to acquire Iridium Communications (IRDM: +25.4%) for $8 billion ($54 per share), which represents a premium of about 24% over the closing price on June 26. This move will strengthen Rocket Lab’s presence in the satellite communications and space infrastructure sectors. The deal is expected to close in mid-2027.

— Strategy (MSTR: +12.6%) unveiled a new digital credit capital management system. It includes a U.S. dollar reserve policy, a revised dividend policy for STRC, a digital credit securities buyback program, a common stock buyback program, and a Bitcoin monetization program.

— Charter Communications (CHTR: +9.4%) is in talks with SpaceX (SPCX: +7.2%) regarding a partnership in the consumer mobile communications sector. Some of SpaceX’s phone traffic may be routed through Charter’s terrestrial internet infrastructure.

— Comcast (CMCSA: +4.4%) announced that it would split its business into two publicly traded companies. NBCUniversal and Sky’s media assets will be spun off from the core business, which is focused on internet access, cable services, and telecommunications infrastructure.

— Taiwanese investigative authorities conducted searches at the offices of Super Micro Computer (SMCI: -8.1%) as part of an expanding investigation into the smuggling of high-performance AI chips to China. The company had previously stated that it was cooperating with Taiwanese authorities.

— Martin Marietta Materials (MLM: -5.6%) announced the acquisition of limestone producer Lhoist North America from the Belgian Lhoist Group for $13.5 billion ($7 billion in cash and $6.5 billion in stock). The company expects this acquisition to boost its profits as early as the first year after the deal closes.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor