Morning in New York: The US and Venezuela bring geopolitics back into focus

Daily review and forecast of events on the US stock market by Mikhail Denislavov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Participants in the upcoming auction will focus on the foreign policy agenda related to the US detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. This event is unlikely to have a significant short-term impact on the oil market, as the country's share in global supplies currently does not exceed 1%. The medium-term consensus on hydrocarbon prices is ambiguous. Many forecasts predict a decline, given the possible easing of the US embargo, which would bring accumulated reserves to market. This trend would also be facilitated by the normalization of production and investments by American businesses in infrastructure for the development of Venezuela's reserves, which are the largest in the world. Amid high uncertainty, the OPEC+ agreement participants left the plan to suspend the increase in supplies for the first quarter unchanged.

In the current situation, gold, a classic safe-haven asset, continues to enjoy high demand.

After the Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the US's unilateral use of force and demands to release Maduro, discussions resumed about Beijing's hardening stance on Taiwan and the South China Sea. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called on Washington to refrain from making threats against Greenland after Donald Trump said that the US "absolutely" needs this strategic region.

In the macroeconomic calendar, participants in upcoming trading will focus on the ISM manufacturing business activity index for December (consensus: 48.7 points, November: 48.2). A slight improvement in the indicator, which is still below the 50-point threshold, will point to continued weakness in the industrial segment. If the actual result turns out to be worse than expected, it could heighten fears of an economic slowdown. In turn, a confident exceeding of the forecast will signal an impending reversal of the production cycle, which will support cyclical sectors.

Futures on US indices point to a moderately positive opening. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trading session as neutral with moderate volatility. We expect the S&P 500 to fluctuate in the range of 6820–6900 points (from -0.5% to +0.6% relative to the previous session's closing level).

Shares of leading US oil and gas companies are in the spotlight amid events in Venezuela. Chevron (CVX) appears to be best positioned to fulfill Trump's promise to rebuild the country's destroyed energy infrastructure. This company remains the only US industry representative with a valid license to operate in Venezuela. Additional excitement is generated by the news that former Chevron top manager Ali Moshiri is already seeking $2 billion to launch projects in the region. Against this backdrop, the company's quotes are showing steady growth in the premarket.

— For Exxon Mobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP), a window of opportunity is opening up through new investments in the restoration of Venezuelan production.

— The expansion of the partnership with Samsung Electronics is a strong positive driver for Alphabet (GOOGL) shares. The South Korean giant plans to double the number of devices running on the Gemini AI model this year, bringing the total to 800 million. This will significantly strengthen Google's ecosystem and reinforce its position in the competitive battle for dominance in the field of artificial intelligence for mobile gadgets.

— L3Harris Technologies (LHX) is close to selling its stake in the space engine manufacturing business to private investment firm AE Industrial Partners. The investment community sees this as a step towards implementing an asset optimization strategy, which is supporting the company's shares ahead of the opening bell.

— Airbus (EADSF) delivered 793 aircraft in 2025, slightly exceeding its updated annual forecast.

— According to the NY Post, Paramount (PSKY) is showing growing irritation over repeated refusals from Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).

Trading on January 2 on US stock exchanges ended mostly in positive territory. The S&P 500 gained 0.19%, the Dow Jones rose 0.66%, the Russell 2000 climbed 1.06%, and only the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.17%.

The stocks of the "Magnificent Seven" showed mixed dynamics. Nvidia (NVDA: +1.26%) enjoyed increased demand from buyers. Tesla (TSLA: -2.59%) was again under pressure. The energy sector (XLE: +2.10%) led the growth, while manufacturers of cyclical consumer goods (XLY: -0.89%) were the outsiders.

The final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December, at 51.8 points, matched the consensus and preliminary estimates. The report pointed to a decline in production cost inflation to an 11-month low and an improvement in the employment situation. Overall, the first trading days of the new year were calm. Bearish sentiment continues to be driven by concerns about the Fed's tight policy and the return on investment in AI. Bulls are buoyed by hopes for fiscal stimulus, AI model upgrades, and higher corporate earnings.

—Tesla (TSLA: -2.6%) reported weak operating results for the fourth quarter. During the reporting period, the company delivered 418,200 electric vehicles, compared to a consensus of 426,000 and its own guidance of 422,850. Production volume amounted to 434,300 units, compared to average expectations of 471,000.

— According to The Information, OpenAI plans to acquire Pinterest (PINS: +2.6%) in 2026. The deal is seen as an opportunity for the buyer to strengthen its position in online commerce and expand its visual data base.

— Baidu (BIDU: +15%) announced the spin-off of its Kunlunxin AI chip manufacturing division into a separate entity, which will subsequently be listed in Hong Kong. The estimated value of Baidu's subsidiary could exceed $3 billion.

— PWR (PWR: +4.2%) placed an order with Bloom Energy (BE: +13.6%) worth approximately $502 million for the supply of fuel cell systems to power California data centers, for which demand continues to grow.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor