No Net Debt: Why Moody’s Raised Kazatomprom’s Credit Rating

The international credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded Kazatomprom’s baseline credit assessment (BCA) from baa3 to baa2, while affirming the company’s long-term rating at Baa1 with a stable outlook.

Moody’s attributes this rating upgrade to the company’s track record of strong credit metrics, high profitability, stable liquidity, and conservative financial policies. The agency notes that the company has maintained strong performance and a net cash position throughout various stages of the uranium price cycle.

This increase followed the publication of results for the first half of 2026, in which Kazatomprom reported that net income had declined by 9% compared to the same period last year, and operating cash flow had fallen by 55%. In its financial statements, the company noted a sharp rise in production costs and raised its forecast for capital expenditures at its mining operations through the end of the year from 415–430 billion tenge ($920–954 million at the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s exchange rate as of September 11, 2026) to 435–450 billion tenge ($965–998 million).

Rising costs, the strengthening of the tenge, an increase in the mineral extraction tax, and higher capital expenditures have weighed on cash flows; however, Kazatomprom has maintained a strong balance sheet and liquidity, according to Moody’s analysts.

The company’s standalone creditworthiness is now just one notch below its long-term credit rating, which takes into account the likelihood of government support in the event of financial difficulties. Moody’s also notes that an upgrade of Kazatomprom’s rating is possible if the ratings of Kazakhstan and Samruk-Kazyna are upgraded and, conversely, that a one-notch downgrade of the BCA would not result in a downgrade of the company’s rating.

“Overall, a single half-year, against the backdrop of fairly high uranium prices, could not, by definition, pose any significant problems for Kazatomprom’s credit rating. The company’s balance sheet is very strong, and its cash on hand exceeds its existing debt, which essentially means it has no net debt,” notes Freedom Broker analyst Daniyar Orazbaev.

In early September, the U.S. investment bank Jefferies initiated coverage of several nuclear energy companies, projecting capital expenditures related to nuclear power to total approximately $55 trillion by 2100. Kazatomprom received a “buy” rating and a price target of $106 per depositary receipt. Analysts predict that 2026–2027 will be challenging years for the company: free cash flow after dividend payments will be negative 101 billion tenge ($224 million) in 2026 and negative 35 billion tenge ($77.6 million) the following year. At the same time, the debt burden will remain nearly zero—around 0.1 times EBITDA. In other words, even with weak cash flow, the company, according to Jefferies’ assessment, retains a significant margin of financial strength.

In early September, JPMorgan analysts upgraded their recommendation on Kazatomprom shares from “hold” (neutral) to “buy” (overweight), noting that they see a clear path to future earnings growth, “as the negative impact of costs will begin to subside next year.”

In late August, Bank of America also raised its price target for Kazatomprom’s depositary receipts from $93 to $94, as its analysts have been anticipating since spring that uranium prices would rise to $130 per pound. Spot uranium prices had been trading in the $85–87 range since early March; they rose slightly in August but have stalled again over the past two weeks—at the time of publication, uranium was trading at $90.2 per pound.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley maintained their “buy” rating and kept their price target at $83, while analysts at UBS lowered their price target from $88 to $86 but also kept their “buy” rating.

On the London Stock Exchange (LSE), Kazatomprop shares were trading at $71 as of 7:30 p.m. Astana time on September 11, down 0.7% from the previous close. On the KASE, the company’s shares fell 4.72% that day to 31,890.01 tenge ($70.74).

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor