Outflows from tech, a debut flop, greater AI risks: Dangers in the Anthropic IPO

Strategists see three risks to the stock market from Anthropic’s IPO, Business Insider reports. The developer of Claude published its draft prospectus on Monday and is expected to list on the Nasdaq in November at a valuation of $1.5-2.0 trillion. Now is a hard time for AI stocks, however: the Nasdaq 100 has fallen 6% from its early-October peak amid mounting investor concerns about the sustainability of the AI boom.

Money may flow out of other tech stocks

Investors may sell other holdings to make room for Anthropic in their portfolios, Thierry Wizman, a division director at Macquarie, told Business Insider. Chipmakers and AI cloud providers, whose stocks are already under pressure, are likely to bear the brunt of the selling, he said. Tech giant Meta is also competing for investor capital: on Monday, it announced plans to sell $95 billion of stock to finance AI projects, then increased the offering to $97.5 billion the following day.

Anthropic might flop after the IPO

B. Riley Wealth Management strategist Art Hogan is concerned that Anthropic’s IPO could be priced too high, which could the stock to fall as soon as trading begins. That happened last week to South Korean AI cloud provider Elice, whose stock lost a third of its value on its first day of trading, which was read as a warning signal by investors. Once publicly traded, Anthropic’s stock is likely to serve as the ultimate barometer for the AI boom, Bloomberg writes. A disappointing debut could trigger a valuation reset across the tech sector, CNBC warns. “If it underperforms expectations, it’ll be a little bit of a house of cards,” Sapphire Ventures cofounder Jai Das told CNBC.

The market may become even more AI centered

The tech sector now accounts for around 40% of the S&P 500’s value. Anthropic’s listing would further increase megacap tech’s share of the market’s capitalization, Business Insider warns. At a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic, the combined market capitalization of the 10 largest U.S. companies would exceed $29 trillion, eToro analyst Bret Kenwell calculated. Every company in the top 10 would then be tied to AI, as Anthropic would displace Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

Some investors whose comments were published by Reuters do not see the IPO as a good time to invest in Anthropic. Josh Stevens, chief investment officer at Cresalta Investment Management, is optimistic about AI but will not rush to buy at the IPO: “Even great ideas or business models end up seeing their share prices come down to attractive levels during times when investors are reassessing demand and supply. And then, you've got an opportunity to go in and buy.”

Great Hill Capital Chairman Thomas Hayes considers Anthropic’s $1.5 trillion valuation to be rich. He acknowledges that the stock could rise initially but expects better entry points over the long term than at the IPO.

Among the document’s most intriguing details, Axios highlights the expansion of Anthropic’s deal with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Anthropic’s payments for SpaceX computing capacity could rise around 2.5-fold to $3.1 billion a month from $1.25 billion at the time of SpaceX’s IPO filing, with the total reaching up to $120.5 billion through 2029. Starting in the first quarter of 2027, either party will be able to terminate the deal with 90 days’ notice, according to the prospectus.

Axios also drew attention to another disclosure: Anthropic estimates that customers using its models in violation of its usage policy or commercial terms accounted for 5-7% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026. The management expects that share to decline following tighter controls, particularly in August and September, but the timing and extent of the impact on revenue remain uncertain.

Theory Ventures’ Tomasz Tunguz, whom Axios quotes, sees arguments on both sides. Rapid growth, a high margin, and an operating profit in the second quarter support the case for the company. Against that are $637 billion in computing commitments and no guarantee that customers will remain loyal to Anthropic. The IPO will test investors’ belief that AI demand can remain strong long enough to pay for the infrastructure being built to support it, Axios concludes.