The boom in the prediction market has prompted Meta to create its own app — NYT
Meta is developing a forecasting app / Photo: Shutterstock.com / bluestork
Meta is working on a mobile app that will allow users to make predictions on various events, similar to the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms, according to The New York Times. The project is still in the early stages of development and will use a points system instead of real-money bets.
Details
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has tasked a small team with creating a standalone weather forecasting app, company employees familiar with the project told The New York Times. The service, with the working title Arena, will operate independently of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. At the same time, Meta hopes to attract an audience through its social media platforms. More than 3.5 billion people use at least one of the company’s services every day, the publication notes.
The forecasting platform project is considered experimental, but according to NYT sources, it is regarded as a priority initiative within the company. Meta does not rule out the possibility of using real-money bets in the future, although in the initial phase, the app will likely operate on a points-based gaming system, the NYT reports.
Context
Meta's interest in prediction markets arose amid the rapid rise in popularity of Polymarket and Kalshi. According to The New York Times, trading volume on these two platforms reached about $50 billion in 2025 and exceeded $130 billion in 2026.
Prediction markets allow users to place bets on a wide variety of events—from the outcomes of sports competitions to political decisions. The growing popularity of such platforms has attracted the attention not only of tech companies but also of traditional bookmakers, including FanDuel and DraftKings, according to the NYT.
At the same time, the sector is facing increased regulatory scrutiny due to the risks associated with the use of insider information. In April 2026, the U.S. Attorney’s Office charged a member of the U.S. Special Forces who placed bets using classified information about preparations for an operation against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
In 2020, Meta launched the Forecast app, where users made predictions about events in the midst of the pandemic. The service was positioned as a collective forecasting tool and used a points system instead of monetary bets, the NYT notes. The company shut down the project in 2022.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
