Trump announced the end of the war with Iran 12 times. How did this affect oil and stocks?

US President Donald Trump has until this day spoken at least 12 times since the beginning of the war in Iran about its imminent end, Axios calculated. He tried to convince Americans that the conflict would not turn into a protracted phase, the publication notes. At the same time, the conflict is now in its fifth week, while the White House has repeatedly indicated a period of four to six weeks.

On March 31, US stock indices soared after Iranian media reported that the country's president expressed readiness to end the war and Trump said in an interview with the New York Post that he believes the operation is close to completion. And here is how the markets reacted to the previous statements of the American leader.

- In a post on the social media network Truth Social on Monday, March 30, Trump threatened to "destroy" Iran's energy and water infrastructure if an agreement to end the war is not reached. "If the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately 'open for business,' we will end our 'nice stay' in Iran" by striking those facilities," he said.

US stock indices opened trading with significant growth after these words. The Fear Index fell by about 4%, dropping below the psychologically important mark of 30 points.

- On March 26, Trump said at a U.S. Cabinet meeting, "They are defeated, they will not be able to recover." On the same day, the US president wrote that he was suspending for 10 days the Islamic Republic's "destruction of energy facilities". "Negotiations continue and, despite the erroneous statements of the lying media and others, are going very well," the American leader assured.

The post on the extension of the moratorium on strikes was published already after the US stock market closed. In the course of trading on March 26, the main U.S. indices collapsed, while futures turned to growth, and oil prices slowed down slightly: Brent traded below $107 per barrel, WTI - below $94.

- On March 24, Trump announced that the operation was over and that there would be regime change in Iran. "We have won this war. This war has already been won," he told reporters.

All three major U.S. indices went into negative territory at the end of the trading day on March 24. The oil price resumed growth after the collapse on March 23.

- On March 23, Trump hinted at a possible peace agreement, writing in Truth Social in capital letters that Washington and Tehran have had "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE negotiations." At the same time, Trump told reporters that if there was no deal, the U.S. would "just keep bombing wholeheartedly."

The president's words on March 23 triggered a violent five-minute rally that was the culmination of the most volatile trading day since the war in the Middle East began, Bloomberg pointed out. At the peak, the Dow and Nasdaq were each adding 2.5 percent, while the S&P 500 was up 2.2 percent. Brent crude oil futures then collapsed by 11%.

- On March 13, Donald Trump said in a Fox News interview that the war will end when "I feel it in my gut." He "doesn't think there's much time left until it's over," the president said.

U.S. stocks ended that day lower.

- On March 12, Trump gave this assessment of the progress of the war: "They're pretty much at the end of the war. That doesn't mean we're going to end it immediately - it's just a question of when." On that day, the president's rhetoric ranged from declarations of victory to promises of escalation - sometimes within the same speech, Axios noted.

U.S. stocks fell sharply on March 12 amid accelerated growth in oil prices. All three major U.S. stock indices were down more than 1.5%, while the Wall Street Fear Index jumped 11%.

- On March 11, Trump told Axios that the war with Iran would end "soon" because "there are virtually no targets left to hit." The conflict will end "any time I want it to end," he said.

- On the same day, March 11, at a rally of his supporters in Kentucky, Trumpsaid, "You never want to say too soon that you won. We won. It was decided in the first hour." However, minutes later he added: "We don't want to leave too soon, right? We've got to follow through, right?"

It was the 12th day of the war, and stocks in the U.S. were mostly dragged down by a renewed surge in oil prices, with Brent rising more than 5% to above $92 a barrel.

- On March 9, during a speech to a Republican convention, Trump said the U.S. has already won the war. "We have already won in many ways, but we have not won enough. We move forward with even greater resolve to achieve the ultimate victory that will end this lingering threat once and for all," he proclaimed.

- Also on March 9, the U.S. president promised that the war with Iran would end "very soon" and that Iran itself was "virtually destroyed."

Stocks in the U.S. responded by showing the best reversal from falling to rising in at least a few months. Brent crude oil, which on the morning of March 9 rose to its highest since 2022 - nearly $120 per barrel - has since reversed to a more than 5% decline.

- On March 2, at a press conference to present the Medal of Honor to three U.S. service members, Trump said, "We will win easily ... Whatever it takes."

- Also on March 2, in an interview with ABC News, he said the operation was an unqualified success. "No one but me could have done it, and you know it," the American leader said.

It was the first day of trading after the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began, and the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes came into plus territory after a sharp drop at the open.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor