Investment ideas for 2026: betting on intelligence and guns

Investments in early 2026 are determined by geopolitics: the US does not rule out military intervention to annex Greenland and conducts a special operation to capture the president of Venezuela, Europe increases military spending due to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Security is becoming a trendy investment trend-2026 - after AI. AI itself in 2026 is no longer a bet on chips alone, but on energy and physical infrastructure.

The 2026 investment season is described by major investment banks as an infrastructure challenge: it is not ideas or demand but energy availability and infrastructure that are becoming the decisive constraints to growth.

Whereas in 2024-2025, investors were discussing "AI winners" - software and chip manufacturers, in 2026 they are already talking about everything related to the implementation of AI in practice. So investment banks are increasingly seeing growth points not in the "core" but in the infrastructure, the demand for which is fueled by innovation. HSBC, emphasizes that rapid progress and adoption of AI will remain a defining theme globally, and within the AI ecosystem, opportunities will expand across sectors, from power and networks to industry and materials.

The practical side of AI in 2026 is almost inevitably rooted in electricity. BofA Global Research calls the modernization of power grids and new energy sources to power AI infrastructure "a big new window of opportunity" for investors. They suggest searching for investment ideas along the entire production chain:

- Energy efficiency and power solutions require energy storage, ventilation and air conditioning systems for data centers

- Development of electricity generation and distribution are power companies and grid operators

- Companies to extract raw materials needed to produce AI equipment

Separately, BofA analysts point out a bottleneck in the development of AI: to increase generation, mixed solutions are required, i.e. not only renewable energy sources, but also "good old" gas and nuclear. This, according to their logic, increases the attractiveness of energy companies with a large share of conventional generation.

European investment banks generally agree with this approach: AI remains in the spotlight, but capital is increasingly moving into the physical constraints: energy, raw materials and security. BNP Paribas Wealth Management in Investment Themes 2026 describes the next stage of AI as the need for electricity and raw materials: the list of what will be needed includes nuclear power and metals such as copper, lithium, aluminum, titanium and specialty alloys.

Security in 2026 is transforming from a geopolitical risk to an investment cycle. BofA talks about the beginning of a security supercycle: from traditional aerospace and defense systems to cybersecurity, drones, hypersonic technologies and satellite networks.

In the European reading, security sounds broader than just defense. BNP Paribas Wealth Management emphasizes security as a systemic factor - it will become increasingly important in the AI ecosystem; and national and geopolitical security issues, such as access to minerals and energy resources, are risk and volatility factors.

BNP Paribas Asset Management ignored the once sacrosanct ESG principles for banks and launched a defense ETF in May. Analysts see the defense sector as a budget and industry story in its own right: their forecast notes that the amounts going to European defense have risen markedly since 2022 and the increased commitments of NATO allies on the horizon to 2035.

UBS, in its Year Ahead 2026 report, attributes continued growth in equities not only to AI and energy, but also to healthcare, among other top sectors for investors in the U.S. market, and in Europe to industrials, technology and utilities. UBS lists the latter as a priority sector for both the U.S. and Europe, linking this to a wave of infrastructure investment. In the European discussion of the "physical constraints" of the economy, such sectors often benefit from clear demand and long investment cycles - especially when the agenda shifts from ideology and ideas to actual construction, modernization and livelihoods.

2026 will be the fourth year of growth for the U.S. economy, Bank of America believes.

Wealthy households, which give a significant share of expenditures, continue to support consumption.

In addition, corporate investments "around AI" are rising, the dollar is weakening and markets are waiting for further Fed rate cuts. There are risk factors - Trump's duties and uncertainty about how exactly giant investments in AI will be monetized.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor