Morgan Stanley has found the "new oil" and suggested how to profit from it

Demand for sodium chloride, that is, ordinary table salt, could skyrocket in the medium term as production of sodium-based batteries—which are much cheaper and more stable than lithium batteries—expands, Morgan Stanley said. “We characterize the emerging era of sodium-ion batteries as the ‘new oil era,’” CNBC quoted a statement from the bank’s analysts, led by Jack Liu, as saying.

According to a forecast by a Wall Street investment giant, in 2027, “salt” batteries will account for only about 2% of the market, but their share will then jump to 20% by 2030 and 37% by 2035. “For investors, the conclusion is clear: this is not a niche chemical experiment, but the emergence of an $800 billion investment wave by 2035 as the technology scales up from pilot stages to industrial deployment,” Morgan Stanley stated (as quoted by the Financial Times).

"Salt" batteries are safer and may prove to be a more cost-effective alternative, according to Morgan Stanley. Furthermore, in extreme cold, sodium-ion batteries retain more than 90% of their charge, while the capacity of lithium-ion batteries is reduced by about half.

Morgan Stanley emphasizes that cold-resistant energy storage systems will make solar and wind projects profitable in regions that were previously considered economically unviable. The first thing the investment bank’s team expects as sodium-ion technology transitions from experimental projects to commercialization is a cycle of replacing outdated storage systems and batteries in corporate vehicle fleets in northern regions, the FT reports.

Morgan Stanley’s pessimistic scenario centers on the issue of costs: for the market to succeed, battery prices must fall by 36%—and that will require reducing the cost of many key components. Despite the abundance of salt, manufacturers will have to seek out sources of specific materials such as Berlin blue, which carries the risk of simply replacing one set of bottlenecks with another. Moreover, lithium prices are extremely volatile and could fall, and industry leaders might resort to aggressive dumping, the British newspaper reports.

A tremendous amount of work lies ahead to prove that the new technology can replace the established one. According to Morgan Stanley’s forecast, this will lead to industry consolidation: “salt-based” alternatives will replace products from small lithium-ion battery suppliers that compete solely on price, and their market share will shift to China’s CATL and other major players.

Among the pioneers in the adoption of sodium-ion technology, the bank’s analysts singled out General Motors: thanks to a partnership with Peak Energy, the American auto giant could begin production of this new type of battery by 2028. Since the start of the year, GM’s stock has fallen 4%, giving up some of its gains after rallying more than 52% in 2025 and 48% in 2024. But Wall Street is hoping for a quick rebound: the consensus forecast among analysts is a “buy” rating and implies a 20% rise in the stock price, according to CNBC, citing data from LSEG.

Another way to capitalize on this investment theme is through commodity markets, notes the FT. The transition to sodium-ion batteries could reduce demand for copper by about 200,000 metric tons—out of a global annual demand of 28 million metric tons.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor