New York morning: investors await Trump's address to the nation on Iran

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Geopolitics remains in the center of attention of the investment community. Despite the remaining risks associated with Iran's statements about plans to attack Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT ), Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC ), IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA ), Boeing (BA) and other major companies, the market is showing signs of stabilization. Lower oil prices and anticipation of U.S. President Donald Trump's announced address to the nation for the evening of April 1 are shaping a more positive short-term sentiment. Presumably, the head of the White House will reveal a plan to end the war with Iran. At the same time, scenarios of forceful opening of the Strait of Hormuz continue to be discussed, as the US is reportedly still strengthening its military presence in the region, indicating that risks remain.

This Wednesday will see the release of a block of retail sales data for February, which will be important for stock exchange players. The consensus for the overall index suggests a 0.4% m/m increase after a 0.2% decline in January. The forecast for the index excluding motor vehicle sales includes a 0.3% increase after zero dynamics a month earlier. For the control group of goods the benchmark is +0.3%, the same as in January. Freedom Broker analysts expect retail sales to exceed the average forecasts, which will be a pro-inflationary factor along with rising energy prices.

The March manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global (consensus: 52.4 points, February: 52.4) and ISM (consensus: 52 points, February: 52.4) will also be released. The most significant component of these statistics will be the price component.

In addition, the ADP employment report for March (consensus: +38.5k, February: +63k) will appear.

Futures on S&P 500 are trading in moderate plus. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as positive with increased volatility. The improvement of geopolitical sentiment has a positive impact on quotes, although risks related to macro data may limit the upward movement potential.

- Quotes of Nike (NKE) on the premarket fell by about 9% after the publication of reports and a weak forecast, which includes a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year by 2-4% with the consensus assuming an increase of 1.9%. Sales in China, as expected by the corporation's management, may decline by about 20% under the influence of macroeconomic instability.

- Shares of Oric Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) were losing about 23% before the open of major trading on news of dosage selection of rinzimetostat for a Phase III (Himalayas-1) study planned for the first half of the year involving about 600 patients. Earlier, encouraging data on the product had been presented.

- nCino securities (NCNO) are adding more than 15% ahead of the start of the main session following the release of earnings and its own FY 2027 guidance. The guide includes revenue in the range of $639-643 mln and free cash flow in the range of $132-137 mln.

- Shares of Dave & Buster's (PLAY) reacted up more than 5% on the premarket to the release of financial results, although the company's revenue declined 0.9% YoY to $529.6 million and last year's EPS of $0.69 was replaced by a loss estimated at $0.35. Nevertheless, management expects improved performance in 2026.

- Ares Management (ARES) quotes were up about 1% before the open of major trading, despite a revision to its first-quarter revenue guidance to ~$75 million. The full-year guidance includes a full-year result of more than $350 million, which implies a significant increase to last year's level despite the shift in the timing of revenue recognition.

March 31 trades on American stock exchanges ended with strong growth. S&P 500 rose by 2.91%, Nasdaq - by 3.43%, Dow Jones added 2.49%, Russell 2000 - 3.41%. The main positive drivers were hopes for the completion of the military operation against Iran, technical rebound amid general oversold conditions and improving sentiment, as well as the factor of the last day of the month and quarter.

Shares of the Magnificent Seven rose more than 4.5%, supporting the entire market, with the technology and semiconductor segments being the most popular with buyers. The IT sector (XLK: +4.24%) was the leader thanks to the strong positive dynamics of megacaps, chipmakers and growth companies. The energy sector (XLE: -1.13%) was the outsider on the back of lower oil prices (WTI: -1.5%).

Macro statistics was generally neutral-positive for risk appetite. The consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose in March, while labor market assessments were almost unchanged. JOLTS job openings for February totaled 6.882 million versus consensus of 6.92 million, but January's figure was revised upward. Chicago PMI for March disappointed, while home price data - FHFA and S&P Case-Shiller - broadly matched expectations. Against this backdrop, UST yields on the short end of the curve fell by about 3 bps, the dollar index (DXY) was down 0.6%, gold was up 2.7% and silver was up 6.2%.

Jeffrey Schmid, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, reemphasized the priority of getting inflation back to 2% despite some positive signals in the economy.

- Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS: +135.4%) will be taken over by Biogen (BIIB) for $41 per share (~$5.6 billion), which implies a premium of about 140% to the March 30 closing level. The deal is scheduled to close in the second quarter.

- Eli Lilly (LLY) is buying Centessa Pharmaceuticals (CNTA: +44% ) for $38 per share in cash ($6.3 bln). The terms of the deal provide for additional shareholder cash consideration (CVR) of $9 per share, which could increase the total purchase price to $7.8 bln. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter.

- Marvell Technology (MRVL: +12.8%) has entered into a strategic partnership in which Nvidia (NVDA) will invest $2 billion in the company and connect it to its AI ecosystem through NVLink Fusion.

- Activist fund Irenic Capital Management has formed a position in Snap (SNAP: +14.6%) to seek to improve the issuer's financial and operational performance.

- McCormick (MKC: -6.1%) plans to combine the business with Unilever's food division in a deal with a valuation of about $44.8 billion.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor