Osipov Vladislav

Vladislav Osipov

Americans expect inflation to rise due to higher fuel prices as a result of the Gulf War / Photo: Dusan Petkovic / Shutterstock.com

Americans expect inflation to rise due to higher fuel prices as a result of the Gulf War / Photo: Dusan Petkovic / Shutterstock.com

U.S. consumer sentiment has plummeted to a record low and concerns about inflation have intensified amid war with Iran, data from a University of Michigan survey released Friday showed.

Details

The composite index of consumer sentiment, which is calculated by the university, fell to 47.6 points. That's 10.7% below March's level and the lowest ever recorded, CNBC noted. The index of current economic conditions and the index of consumer expectations also showed double-digit declines from the previous month.

The deterioration in sentiment coincided with a sharp jump in inflation expectations: survey participants now expect prices to be 4.8% higher a year from now. That's a full percentage point higher than the March poll showed and the highest since August 2025, CNBC writes. In April 2025 - after President Trump announced "reciprocal" customs duties - respondents' forecast for the year ahead was 6.5%.

Long-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey - for the next five years - also rose: to 3.4%. This is 0.2 p.p. higher than a month earlier, although 1 p.p. lower than a year ago.

What Americans fear

Comments from survey participants "show that many consumers blame the conflict with Iran for unfavorable changes in the economy," said University of Michigan research team leader JoAnn Hsu. However, she caveated that most of the interviews were completed before the April 7 cease-fire.

"Economic expectations are likely to improve if consumers are convinced that supply disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran have ended and gasoline prices have fallen," she said.

Context

The survey was published almost immediately after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the overall consumer price index in March rose 0.9% compared to February, while in annual terms inflation accelerated to 3.3%. The agency estimated that a jump in energy prices accounted for most of the increase in the overall index, while food inflation remained subdued.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor

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