Brent crude falls 10% as Democratic sweep raises hopes for end to Iran war

Brent crude fell as much as 10% on Wednesday, touching an intraday low of $93.22 a barrel. Democrats have won clear majorities in both chambers of the U.S. Congress after the midterm elections. The Senate Democratic leader said the new majority would work with Republicans to end the war with Iran. U.S. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that the war cost Republicans the election.

Brent has fallen more than 17% since the end of last week as investors hope for progress toward a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran, the Financial Times reported. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, fell as much as 9.3% on Wednesday to $87.13 a barrel.

Vance wrote on X that “the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.” He added, “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.” Against this backdrop, traders and analysts attribute the drop in oil prices to growing expectations that the U.S. war with Iran could end soon, the FT writes. The conflict has disrupted the global oil market and sharply curtailed crude exports from Persian Gulf countries. “The market is saying that Congress and members of his own administration are likely to start acting as a constraint on President Trump’s war in Iran,” Seb Barker, chief market strategist at Marshall Wace, told the FT.

CBS News reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that President Trump had asked advisers whether to fire Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a leading figure in the Iran campaign. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said his party’s new majority would work with Republicans to end the war.

Trump’s recent remarks have also been fairly conciliatory and suggested little urgency to resume strikes on Iran, said Joel Hancock, a senior commodities analyst at Natixis Bank. Without a peace deal, however, Hancock expects Brent to climb back above $100 a barrel because of high logistics costs and persistent difficulties shipping crude out of the Persian Gulf.

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at research firm Rystad Energy, said the Democratic victory raises the political cost of continuing the war for the Trump administration. The White House retains the power to launch strikes, maintain a blockade, and issue sanctions licenses. But with both chambers of Congress able to pass resolutions, withhold war funding, and delay confirmation of nominees, Galimberti said the administration has less time and faces greater institutional pressure to reach a peace deal.