Brent is trading above $101 per barrel. Analysts are revising their forecasts: in the worst-case scenario, they expect prices to rise to $150

Brent crude oil futures surpassed the psychological threshold of $101 per barrel for the first time since July. Since the beginning of the year, Brent prices have risen by more than 60%. The latest escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran is fueling concerns about disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East as winter approaches, CNBC notes. As a result, analysts at leading banks, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and UBS, have raised their oil price forecasts for this year and next, according to BusinessInsider.

Goldman Sachs commodity analysts have raised their forecast for the price of Brent crude to $85 per barrel by December. Goldman Sachs’ base-case scenario still assumes a gradual recovery in exports from the Persian Gulf as producers adapt to disruptions, including through alternative transportation routes and, in the long term, additional pipeline capacity, according to CNBC.

According to the investment bank’s pessimistic scenario, Brent could exceed $120 per barrel in 2027, provided that average daily oil production in the Persian Gulf countries remains below expectations, BI reports.

"Recent events show that the likelihood of a scenario involving a surge in prices is definitely increasing. Against the backdrop of more frequent and larger-scale attacks on ships, exports could effectively grind to a halt in the coming months, and the price of Brent could exceed $120 per barrel,” said Daan Struijven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs. He was quoted by CNBC.

Goldman Sachs' optimistic scenario calls for oil prices to fall to $60 per barrel in 2027, provided that oil production in the Gulf countries turns out to be significantly higher than expected, the publication reports.

“If local conflicts that are holding back oil flows continue through the end of the year, Brent crude could trade in the range of $95–$120 per barrel. Meanwhile, a larger-scale conflict that leads to serious damage to energy infrastructure could drive prices as high as $150 per barrel,” The Wall Street Journal quotes Bank of America analysts as saying.

Bank of America's base-case scenario calls for an average Brent crude price of around $83 in the second half of the year, according to BI.

“Our baseline scenario assumes a gradual normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the prevention of a protracted conflict. Nevertheless, the market remains exposed to significant risks,” the publication quotes the bank’s analysts as saying.

The bank’s analysts have raised their year-end forecast for Brent from $85 to $95 per barrel, according to Barron’s.

“Nighttime attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia or threats from Iranian officials indicate that the risks to oil prices will remain skewed to the upside for the time being, in our view, — says UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo. In his view, the ongoing attacks on ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via the southern corridor—despite U.S. military escorts—make supplies vulnerable to further disruptions.

A number of banks have raised their forecasts for the price of Brent crude. Specifically, Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast to $90 per barrel for the fourth quarter, while HSBC has raised its forecasts to $90 and $85 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, respectively, according to Reuters.

“The key indicator to watch right now is whether this [escalation of attacks by the U.S. and Iran] will put an end to active shuttle shipments of raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz. Supplies may not cease entirely, but against the backdrop of growing Houthi aggression in the Red Sea and an increase in China’s oil imports, the balance in the global energy market appears to be deteriorating once again,” — Bloomberg quotes Arne Loman Rasmussen, chief analyst at the Copenhagen-based firm Global Risk Management.

"The fundamental outlook for the petroleum products market remains 'bullish' amid the depletion of global stocks and reserves," said Darrell Fletcher, managing director of commodity markets at Bannockburn Capital Markets. His comments were reported by Bloomberg.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor