Goldman expects Brent at $100 all the way to 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open for another month
"The situation remains unstable," analysts stated. On April 9 - after the maximum collapse in six years amid the truce in the Middle East - oil prices began to rise again
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The average price of Brent crude oil will exceed $100 a barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz, a key route off Iran's coast for energy supplies, remains closed for another month, Bloomberg writes, citing a note by Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven, that they issued after the start of a two-week truce between the U.S. and Iran.
Details
"The situation remains unstable," the analysts stated. In a note, Goldman Sachs strategists mentioned, among other things, comments by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance about the fragility of the truce in the Middle East. "We continue to believe the risks to our [oil] price forecast are skewed to the upside," they said.
- Goldman Sachs ' updated baseline oil forecast now assumes that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will begin to increase this weekend, followed by a gradual - within a month - recovery of Gulf oil and gas exports to pre-war levels. Under this scenario, the average price of Brent crude oil would average $82 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $80 in the fourth quarter.
- The bank's unfavorable forecast, which assumes a "delay" of one month for the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, implies that the average price of Brent crude oil will exceed $100 dollars per barrel in the second half of 2026.
- Goldman Sachs ' negative scenario for oil, based on the forecast of a longer blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction of some production in the Middle East, suggests that the price of Brent oil in the third quarter of 2026 could rise to $120 per barrel, and in the fourth quarter to fix at $ 115.
Context
Brent crude oil prices on April 9 began to recover after posting their biggest intraday decline in nearly six years a day earlier - amid a temporary truce in the Middle East. On April 9, Brent rose again by more than 2% to $97 per barrel, with WTI contracts trading at $97.76. Such dynamics oil quotations demonstrate against the background of Iran's accusation of Israel in violation of the ceasefire agreement because of Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Because of this, in the evening of April 8, the Iranian agency Fars reported that the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was suspended. The White House, in turn, called these reports "false".
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
