Oil exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels in September

Oil exports from the Middle East in September exceeded the level recorded before the start of the war between the U.S. and Iran, according to ship-tracking data cited by Reuters . Producers in the Persian Gulf have increased their shipments despite ongoing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

As of the time of this publication, oil prices had fallen: futures for the benchmark Brent crude were down 0.8%, trading at around $101.5 per barrel. Futures contracts for U.S. WTI crude lost 1.4% and were trading at just under $90 per barrel.

Average daily oil exports from the Persian Gulf for the week ending September 30 totaled 18.3 million barrels, according to preliminary data from Kpler, an analytics firm that tracks global commodity flows. At the same time, shipments exceeded pre-war levels for 14 days in September. These volumes included oil from the Persian Gulf shipped through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as oil loaded from terminals and transshipped from ship to ship in the Gulf of Oman, Reuters reports.

In the year leading up to the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, crude oil exports from the region averaged about 18 million barrels per day, Kpler adds.

According to analysts' estimates, shipment volumes had already reached or exceeded prewar levels on certain days in June and July—after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding that expired in August.

Vortexa, a provider of shipping analytics, also confirmed that shipments have returned to pre-war levels, according to Reuters.

Saudi Arabia was responsible for the current surge in exports, having managed to restore a significant portion of its shipments—both via the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf—following the September 10 attack on the East-West oil pipeline, Kpler reported. To do so, it was necessary to organize so-called shuttle transport through the Strait of Hormuz, deploying more supertankers, according to market participants and analysts. However, they say that the capacity for such ship-to-ship oil transfers has already reached its limit.

“The bulk of September’s increase compared to last month comes from Saudi Arabia—the country is ramping up exports to regain market share lost to other Middle Eastern countries,” said senior market analyst Xavier Tan. He believes that the increase in Middle Eastern shipments will help reduce the deficit in the oil market, which is particularly important for Asian refineries.

Although shipping volumes have recovered, they remain vulnerable to disruptions, Ole Slot Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told Bloomberg.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to their highest level since the start of the war, according to vessel tracking data from Kpler and Bloomberg. Since late last week, at least three tankers have left this key shipping lane, but traffic remains more than 75% below pre-war levels.

The market is closely monitoring LNG exports for signs that the shortage—which last month pushed prices in Europe and Asia to their highest levels since late 2022—is easing. A sustained recovery could help bring prices down just ahead of the winter season, when demand for heating traditionally surges, Bloomberg notes.

The threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains high: attacks on tankers in the region continue. At least seven incidents have been recorded over the past week, Reuters reported, citing the shipping tracking service Marisks. However, “the nature of the latest incidents does not necessarily indicate a deliberate targeting of specific merchant vessels,” the service’s analysts say.

At the same time, hostilities in the Middle East continue to escalate. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government has launched a large-scale military offensive to retake territories controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis. The group is conducting military operations within the country and is also carrying out attacks on Saudi Arabia’s critical energy infrastructure.

“The risk premium hasn’t disappeared just because the bulk of oil exports is recovering,” explains Emily Ashford, head of energy market research at Standard Chartered. “The conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is unfolding according to its own dynamics and carries its own risks of escalation, which is why Saudi infrastructure and alternative export routes remain directly under threat.” According to her, energy markets will be extremely sensitive to any signs that the “East-West” route could once again be disrupted.

On Monday, AFP reported that operations on this oil pipeline had been suspended again following another attack. Sources at Bloomberg stated that it is operating normally.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor