Oninvest Index: Energy Small Caps Nearly Tripled the S&P 500. Who Are the Leaders?

Energy small-cap stocks surged sharply in the first half of the year, outperforming the broader market by nearly three times since the start of the year. Despite worsening forecasts for global demand, small companies have been buoyed by high oil prices, a shortage of ships and equipment, and high freight rates, which hit their highest levels since 2008 this spring. Various segments are growing—from oilfield services and tanker transportation to LNG and uranium.

To measure this effect, we calculated the Oninvest Small Cap Energy Index, which includes 117 publicly traded companies with a market capitalization of up to $2 billion. The sample includes oil and gas producers, oilfield service companies, tanker owners, LNG operators, and companies in the uranium sector. The index is calculated in two versions: an equally weighted version, where each company’s weight is 0.85%, and a market-capitalization-weighted version.

The closest exchange-traded fund (ETF) equivalent is the Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF (PSCE), which tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Energy Index. However, Oninvest’s portfolio is broader: the Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF invests only in U.S. companies and, as of the end of the first quarter of 2026, held 31 holdings. We, on the other hand, have added foreign issuers listed in the U.S.—including the Greek shipping companies Tsakos Energy Navigation, Imperial Petroleum, Pyxis Tankers, and Dynagas LNG Partners; Bermuda-registered Nordic American Tankers, Flex LNG, Borr Drilling, and Teekay; as well as companies from Canada, the United Kingdom, Cyprus, Argentina, Colombia, Australia, Singapore, and China.

It is precisely these companies that provide insight into a segment that is virtually unrepresented in the U.S. index: tanker shipping. In 2026, this market became one of the key sources of growth for small energy companies.

In the first half of 2026, the Oninvest Small Cap Energy EW equally weighted index rose by 24.25%, while the Oninvest Small Cap Energy CapW market-capitalization-weighted index rose by 14.59%. From the beginning of the year through August 24, the equally weighted version of the index gained 38.38%, while the market-capitalization-weighted version gained 27.07%.

By comparison, since the start of the year, the Russell 2000 has gained 21.74%, and the S&P 500 has gained 12.76%. Meanwhile, the Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy sector ETF rose 44.98%, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P ETF rose 47.9%, and the Energy Select Sector ETF rose 42.38% (calculations by Oninvest). A year earlier, the picture was completely different. In 2025, the equally weighted version of the index gained just 0.78%, while the market-capitalization-weighted version fell by 21.23%.

A turning point in 2026 was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil shipments passed: in the spring, the price of Brent crude reached $120 per barrel. And the market continues to react to every report of a possible reopening of the strait and ongoing negotiations.

According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investment in the energy sector will reach $3.4 trillion in 2026—5% more than the previous year. About $1.2 trillion will go toward oil, gas, and coal. However, investment in oil is declining for the third consecutive year and will fall below $500 billion, while investment in gas will rise to $330 billion—the highest level in the past decade.

Oil demand is also failing to support the industry: In its August report, the IEA lowered its forecast and now expects demand to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, anticipating a return to growth in 2027. But for smaller companies, what matters more is what is happening with the price of crude oil right here and now. Brent is trading above $85 per barrel, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the average price to remain at that level in the third quarter.

We selected four companies from the top 10 in terms of returns for the first half of the year that are of the greatest interest to investors:

Nordic American Tankers (NYSE: NAT) is a shipping company that operates a fleet of 18 tankers, each with a capacity of approximately one million barrels. In the first quarter of 2026, the company’s net income totaled $46.3 million—more than in all of 2025—and quarterly dividends rose to 22 cents per share. This marks the 115th consecutive quarterly dividend payment since the company went public in September 1996.

The time-charter equivalent rate (daily vessel revenue minus voyage expenses) rose to $47,600, compared with $27,490 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company has already contracted approximately 90% of its fleet for the second quarter at about $68,000 per day, with operating expenses amounting to less than $10,000 per day.

Herbjorn Hansson, founder and CEO of Nordic American Tankers, purchased 100,000 shares on July 10, 2026, at $6.03. On July 21, 2026, Evercore ISI analyst Jonathan Chappell reaffirmed his “Underperform” rating (recommendation to sell the stock) with a price target of $4.50—which is about one-third below the current market price. According to his calculations, NAT shares are trading at a premium of about 32% to net asset value, while the industry has placed a record number of orders for new tankers: once these vessels begin entering service, the supply of tonnage will increase and freight rates will decline (the report is available at Oninvest). The average target price for Nordic American Tankers shares is $6.28, which is about 10% below the current level. Of the four analysts, three recommend buying the stock.

Kosmos Energy (NYSE/LSE: KOS) produces oil and gas in deepwater fields off the coasts of Ghana, Mauritania, Senegal, and in the Gulf of Mexico.

In the second quarter of 2026, the company reported a net profit of $185 million, compared with a loss of $87.7 million a year earlier. Revenue rose 54.7% to $607.25 million, and production increased 12% year-over-year to approximately 71,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day. At the same time, production costs fell by 25% to $25.6 per barrel. The company expects that new wells at the Jubilee field will increase its gross production to over 90,000 barrels per day. The company expects to complete the refinancing of its $1.2 billion credit line by the fourth quarter.

The main risk for Kosmos Energy is that its net debt exceeds its market capitalization. On August 4, Bank of America lowered its price target to $1.50 from $1.64, maintaining its Underperform rating, noting that the company had reduced its debt primarily through asset sales and share offerings, rather than through cash flow. On August 3, 2026, Jefferies reaffirmed its “Buy” rating with a price target of $2.75. The market consensus is $3.15, approximately 15% higher than the closing price on August 25.

W&T Offshore (NYSE: WTI) operates in the Gulf of Mexico, where it holds interests in 48 fields, and drills almost no new wells: production is sustained through low-cost workovers and upgrades to its existing portfolio. W&T has traditionally grown by acquiring mature assets. According to CEO Tracy Kron, over the past 40 years, it has been acquisitions and the integration of those assets that have enabled the company to increase its reserves and production.

However, there have been no new acquisitions in recent quarters: the gap between buyers’ prices and sellers’ expectations remains too wide, and competition for assets has intensified with the arrival of new players in the market. At the same time, W&T maintains $194.1 million in available liquidity, which it plans to use for new transactions.

In the second quarter of 2026, the company reported a net profit of $12.6 million, compared with a loss of $20.9 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 54% to $54.4 million, and free cash flow rose 8.8-fold to $31.4 million. Net debt decreased to $200.9 million from $220.3 million a quarter earlier, while the average realized price per barrel equivalent rose 11% quarter-over-quarter to $50.23.

The main risk is asset retirement obligations: as of the end of June, these amounted to $548.8 million, while the company’s equity was negative—minus $196.2 million.

Lawsuits against insurance guarantors are a separate matter. W&T Offshore stated that, if it prevails, the company’s claims could reach hundreds of millions of dollars, and under the law, the awarded amount could be tripled. With the company’s market capitalization at approximately $575 million, such an outcome could significantly impact its value. On August 6, William Blair analyst Neil Dingmann reaffirmed his “Outperform” rating with a price target of about $4 per share. According to MarketWatch, all three analysts recommend buying W&T Offshore shares. The average price target is $5.05, roughly 40% above the closing price on August 25.

Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) — specializes in petroleum product logistics, operates the largest proppant (sand used in hydraulic fracturing) supply network in the Permian Basin, and owns the 42-mile-long Dune Express pipeline. But now investors’ attention is increasingly shifting to a new line of business for Atlas: off-grid power generation for data centers.

In March 2026, Atlas entered into a framework agreement with Caterpillar to supply equipment for generating approximately 1.4 GW of electricity. Atlas expects to increase its own generating capacity to 2 GW by 2030.

In the second quarter of 2026, revenue increased by 10.4% from the previous quarter to $293.2 million, remaining virtually unchanged year-over-year (+1.6%). Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 30% to $49.5 million, while the net loss increased nearly fivefold to $25.1 million.

The company has also completed construction of a 26-MW temporary power plant as part of a five-year contract for 120 MW. Meanwhile, Atlas’s forecast for the third quarter is that adjusted EBITDA will be $30–45 million.

After rising 76.3% in the first half of the year, the stock was up 29.5% year-to-date as of August 24 (according to Oninvest calculations). Analysts have also become more cautious: On August 7, Barclays lowered its price target from $14 to $10 and maintained its “Underweight” rating (essentially, a recommendation to sell the stock). On August 4, RBC lowered its target price from $21 to $17 with a “Sector Perform” rating (“hold”). The average target price from analysts is $18.08, 50% higher than the closing price on August 25. According to Market Watch, six analysts recommend buying the company’s stock, five recommend holding, and two recommend selling.

This does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation.