Rivian's electric vehicle delivery forecast exceeded expectations. Its stock soared

Shares of electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian Automotive rose 8.4% during trading on July 2. Investors reacted to the company’s upward revision of its 2026 delivery forecast. This move reflects Rivian’s expectations for its new electric crossover, the R2. The electric vehicle manufacturer expects the model to bolster its sales despite the elimination of federal tax credits for electric vehicle purchases in the U.S., according to Reuters.

During trading on Thursday, July 2, Rivian shares surged to an intraday high of nearly 15%, but then slowed slightly and closed the day up 8.4%. The stock showed a similar trend following the company’s release of its quarterly results and forecasts for deliveries and sales.

Rivian now expects to deliver up to 70,000 vehicles in 2026, up from its previous forecast of 62,000 to 67,000. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had, on average, expected deliveries of 63,000 vehicles by the end of the year, Reuters notes.

In the second quarter of 2026, Rivian delivered 12,000 vehicles, a 14% increase from a year earlier and significantly higher than Visible Alpha’s consensus forecast of 10,500 vehicles. This growth was driven by strong demand for the R1 SUVs, electric delivery vans, and the new R2 electric crossover, which began shipping in June. The R2 is a direct competitor to the Tesla Model Y, the world’s best-selling car.

The upward revision reflects Rivian’s expectation that the more compact and affordable R2 will help sustain the company’s sales, despite lingering concerns about demand following the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicle purchases in the U.S., Reuters reports. The start of deliveries of the R2 electric crossover has been one of the key drivers of Rivian’s stock growth, according to Cantor analyst Andrés Sheppard, as quoted by Barron’s. “We continue to expect the R2 lineup to significantly boost the company’s sales—primarily thanks to its competitive price and recently introduced autonomous driving features. In addition, it will enable Rivian to capture additional market share in the electric vehicle sector,” Sheppard believes.

Bloomberg notes that Rivian itself views the R2 lineup as one of the most important factors for achieving future profitability. The starting price for the first R2 models is nearly $58,000, which is significantly lower than the automaker’s R1 SUVs and pickups (which can cost more than $100,000, the agency notes).

Another reason for the recent rise in Rivian’s performance metrics is the increase in gasoline prices, according to Barron’s. The average base price of gasoline in the U.S. reached $4.60 per gallon after rising by about $1.60 in May amid the war in Iran, which disrupted global oil supplies. Demand for electric vehicles rose during the conflict in the Middle East; for example, Tesla’s electric vehicle deliveries increased by 25% in the second quarter compared with the same period a year earlier.

Rivian’s partnership with Uber could serve as an additional driver of growth for the company’s stock, according to Reuters. In March 2026, Uber announced its intention to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian as part of an agreement to launch 10,000 fully autonomous R2 electric crossovers as robotaxis starting in 2028.

According to MarketWatch, of the 28 analysts covering Rivian stock, 13 recommend buying it, 10 have a neutral rating (Hold), and five recommend selling it.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor