The end of the bull market is closer than it seems: Why does an analyst expect the S&P 500 to plummet by a third?
By the end of 2027, the S&P 500 index could plummet to 5,000 points, warns an analyst at the British firm Panmure Liberum / Photo: maxterram / Shutterstock.com
The S&P 500 broad-market index could fall to 5,000 points by the end of 2027, which is 35% below its most recent closing price, warns the British brokerage firm Panmure Liberum.
“If bond yields and interest rates continue to rise, then, in our view, the end of the stock market bull run may be closer than many investors think,” Reuters quotes Panmure Liberum analyst Joachim Clement as saying.
He notes that strong growth in corporate earnings and solid economic indicators are still supporting stock prices. However, the upcoming third-quarter earnings season, as well as companies’ forecasts for 2027—which will begin to be released early next year—will serve as an important test of how sustainable the current positive trends are.
Panmure Liberum also forecasts that by the end of 2027, the European STOXX 600 index will fall to 430 points from its current level of approximately 634 points—a decline of about 32%. The British FTSE 100, according to the investment bank’s estimates, will fall to 8,260 points from nearly 10,500 points, representing a decline of about 21%. Further interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England could put additional pressure on stock markets. According to Clement, these hikes could hasten the end of the current “bull” market.
Panmure Liberum’s forecast differs sharply from the estimates of several other brokerage firms. Many of them expect the S&P 500 to end 2026 at 8,000 points or higher, with the bull market continuing into next year, Reuters notes.
The U.S. stock market has so far shown remarkable resilience despite a number of negative factors: persistently high inflation, rising bond yields and interest rates, as well as a slight cooling of optimism surrounding the artificial intelligence boom. For now, the S&P 500 continues the rally that began in October 2022 and has gained more than 13% since the start of 2026. During trading on October 5, amid rising prices for technology stocks, the broad U.S. stock index rose by nearly 0.7%, closing near its all-time high at 7,773.95.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
