Turlov, the founder of Freedom Holding, predicted that the dollar would fall below 400 tenge
The billionaire is convinced that the tenge's appreciation against the dollar and the ruble could have an anti-inflationary effect
Timur Turlov suggested the possibility that the dollar could fall below 400 tenge / Photo: Sergey Dudikov / Shutterstock
The dollar exchange rate could fall below 400 tenge if the current high real interest rates in the country’s financial market persist, according to Timur Turlov, the majority shareholder of Freedom Holding. He made this statement at the opening of the ITS IDEAS 2026: Markets in Motion financial conference in Astana, as quoted by “Kursiv.” This implies a decline in the dollar-tenge exchange rate of approximately 12% relative to the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s rate as of September 8.
“We are currently living in remarkable times for the fixed-income market in Kazakhstan. On the one hand, inflation remains quite high, although it is falling rapidly amid changes in the exchange rate,” Turlov said. According to him, it is not only the tenge’s appreciation against the dollar that matters, but also its appreciation against the ruble, which has occurred over the past two to three months. “This could have an anti-inflationary effect as early as the next few months,” added the head of Freedom Holding.
In Kazakhstan, both nominal and real interest rates remain high, and there is a massive inflow of foreign investment—both portfolio and direct, and into both the public and private sectors—Turlov said. “All the currency is simply flowing to us. When I said late last year that the exchange rate would be stronger than 500 tenge per dollar, few people believed it. If we continue in the same vein, we’ll have an exchange rate stronger than 400 tenge per dollar,” the businessman emphasized.
At the same time, he estimated the real return on investments in government securities at 40–50% per year, taking into account both the yield on the securities themselves and the strengthening of the national currency against foreign currencies.“The carry trade (a strategy of borrowing at lower rates to invest in assets with higher returns. — Oninvest) isn’t just attractive. In my view, it’s simply extremely attractive,” Turlov concluded.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
