
The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has risen to nearly 90% and fundamentals point to further weakening of the U.S. currency

The dollar is on its way to its worst week since July. What's weighing on the exchange rate?

The year 2025 abruptly reversed the dynamics of the currency market: the dollar's exchange rate against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners, which had risen by 40% between 2010 and 2024, fell sharply. The first half of the year was marked by the strongest dollar <a href="https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines">depreciation</a> in half a century, down 11% since 1973. In the following months, the nominal effective exchange rate <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NxFg">recovered</a> about a quarter of the decline, while the real exchange rate <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RBUSBIS">remained</a> roughly flat at the end of the first half of the year.

The dollar under Trump has suffered its strongest decline in half a century. This may not be the end 

The high concentration of global capital in U.S. equities has performed well over the past 15 years, but in the current environment it has become a source of risk, RBC said

RBC: the dollar may repeat the dot-com cycle with a 40% collapse. How to protect capital?

The Japanese currency could fall to this level if it breaches the 155 mark, Amundi believes

Hedge funds bet on the yen falling to 160 per dollar by the end of the year

The bank estimates that about 99% of the total volume of stablecoins is pegged to the U.S. dollar or dollar-denominated assets

Expanding stablecoin market could attract trillions in dollar assets - JPMorgan

International investors rushed to exit the U.S. market after the U.S. trade war began, but then quickly returned. Now it is breaking record after record again, the situation with bonds has stabilized. But there is one exception - the dollar.

Buy America, sell the dollar: how investors are building defenses in the U.S. market

RTX Corporation

CACI International Inc

L3Harris Technologies, Inc.

A sharp standoff in Congress raises the risk of a protracted conflict

The U.S. has its first shutdown in seven years. What does this change for investors?

Investment bank strategists expect the S&amp;P 500 index to add another 2% in the next three months

Goldman Sachs changes its equity stance to bullish amid low recession risk

NVIDIA Corporation

NIO Inc.

In China, stock indices are hitting ten-year highs amid deflation, real estate crisis and tariff pressure from the U.S., raising fears of a bubble. In currency markets, the dollar is faltering after hints from Fed chief Jerome Powell of a possible rate cut. And oil quotes are reacting to Ukraine's attacks on Russian infrastructure. About these and other topics - in our review of key events for the morning of August 25.

Morgan Stanley

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

The U.S. dollar in 2025 is noticeably losing ground against other key currencies: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of ten leading world currencies, has slipped by almost 11% in the first six months. This was the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-11/dollar-faces-competition-as-trump-redefines-trade-order">worst result</a> for the first half of the year since 1973.

EU banks and emerging market equities: How can investors play the sagging dollar?

Birkenstock Holding plc

Williams Trading analyst named Birkenstock as one of five "masthead" brands for retailers

Birkenstock beat forecast due to demand for shoes without discounts. Why did the stock fall?

Stagflation risks are underestimated and the "Magnificent Seven" will not hold the market back, says Thorsten Slock