Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have remained near their highest levels for the longest period since 2007

In 2026, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds had already been above 5% for 27 trading days—or about 19% of all sessions since the start of the year. Bloomberg noted that this figure is the highest since the 2007 financial crisis. At that time, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds remained above 5% for 50 days. This trend reflects investors’ concerns about rising government debt and persistent inflation, the agency explains.

On Wednesday, July 22, the yield on 30-year government bonds remained above 5% for the 12th consecutive trading session, — a streak that could surpass the record set in May of 11 trading days, when the benchmark yield reached 5.2%—its highest level since 2007. The real yield on 30-year Treasury bonds, adjusted for inflation, has risen by about 50 basis points this year and is approaching 3%, — levels last seen in 2008, notes Bloomberg.

However, unlike in 2007, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) benchmark interest rate is now 150 basis points lower than it was then. This indicates that investors are demanding even higher compensation for holding the longest-maturity securities issued by the Treasury Department, compared to the period when problems in the mortgage market first arose, the agency explains.

The main reason for the rise in yields on long-term government bonds is growing concern over the deteriorating fiscal situation—as the corporate debt market is flooded with bonds issued to finance artificial intelligence infrastructure, Bloomberg reports.

“The very high levels of sovereign debt and budget deficits are having a significant impact, keeping yields on longer-term securities elevated,” said Tony Rodriguez, head of bond market strategy at Nuveen Asset Management.

Since 2007, the U.S. Treasury securities market has grown from $4.5 trillion to $31 trillion, while U.S. national debt has doubled and now exceeds the size of the country’s entire economy (accounting for more than 100% of GDP), the agency notes.

Fitch Ratings recently warned that the U.S. debt burden is “significantly higher” than that of other countries with a similar AA rating. With the exception of the United Kingdom, yields on 30-year U.S. bonds are higher than those of other major debtors, such as Japan and France, Bloomberg notes.

In addition, in 2026, the AI sector is now competing for the money of investors buying government bonds—companies involved in artificial intelligence are raising more than $500 billion through debt securities, according to Bloomberg. For fund managers, this is one of the reasons why yields above 5% on 30-year government bonds are now set to remain for the long term—unlike similar spikes in yields in the past.

“Every time we’ve seen a 5% yield over the past few years, these securities have been snapped up quickly,” noted Alex Payne, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Capital Management. Traditional buyers of 30-year bonds, such as pension funds and insurers, now have “a wider range of investment options than in previous years,” he emphasized, noting that he is not certain that yields on long-term government bonds have already peaked.

“Regardless of who issues debt securities—whether it’s a government, a hyperscaler, or someone else—at the long end of the yield curve, a growing number of borrowers are now competing with a large number of other borrowers for the same group of investors,” — added Tony Rodriguez of the investment firm Nuveen.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor